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this post was submitted on 10 Apr 2024
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ITT: we discuss how Russia has decided to become China's Canada
Ukraine is China-USA proxy war
Nah. The EU is wayyyyyy more involved than they'd ever be in against China. The US isn't even trying, mostly handing off cold war era surpluses, like WW3 levels of cluster munitions that were due to be decommissioned anyways.
Ukraine is a way for China to get cheap oil and mining, on top of 25% extra markups on electronics. Props up their ailing economy a bit longer.
The ease at which a simple looking invasion has turned into a multi-year quagmire is also not lost on the Chinese. Both Russia and China are looking at demographic shifts if not outright collapses, and a long bloody war that drives people out and kills a lot more won't bode well. Xi may still try to pick a fight but it's not clear what they stand to gain, while doing nothing means they can fleece the Russians while simultaneously watching the Indians slowly lose their military supplier. Bang the drum a little and then sit back and let the money flow in.