And half -- I'm guessing with significant overlap here -- don't know that punishment only acts as a deterrence if you believe you'll get caught, and most people committing crimes either don't believe that they will, or aren't thinking about it in the moment at all.

Tribalism is a hell of a drug, and conservative voters are some of the most strongly tribal.

The information-deficit model is pretty much dead, but it's dead-and-buried-and-starting-to-smell with the political right.