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Other 196's:
What is your source for the CIA analysts/brink of civil war claim?
A PBS interview of retired analysts who'd spent their life studying regions of civil unrest and the conditions that lead to civil war. It was since the Biden administration began so it shouldn't be too hard to hunt down.
As for the neutered elections, this had been part of the Republican project REDMAP, but is laid out in the Heritage Foundation Project 2025 as well.