I think this is right, but there is a bit of a confounding factor in that mods and power users of reddit are disproportionately likely to jump ship IMO. So while the masses might still show up to reddit, it's entirely possible that the quality of the content will take a nosedive anyway. I'm not really sure how much of a difference that makes. I suspect not enough of one to kill reddit off completely, but I do think there's a good chance that it's enough to get Lemmy off the ground and viable. I think we probably only need to see 1% or maybe even fewer users migrate here from reddit to make Lemmy active enough that I never have any reason to go back to reddit again.