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Evidence that we have been living in an increasingly risk-averse culture
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this post was submitted on 06 Jan 2024
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You're wrong. Scientific consensus is that this will be catastrophic. We're still emitting more greenhouse gases year over year, and the rate at which global warming is happening is still increasing year over year. Anyone who says this will stop at 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees, 3 degrees, whatever, they're all wrong because no slowdown is happening at all. It's wishful thinking. Climate predictions are being broken all the time, never in a good way. And that's not taking into account any tipping points that suddenly speed up climate change, such as melting ice releasing trapped methane.
There is no reason to say it won't be that bad. It will
My message literally starts by saying climate change is bad. It will be catastrophic. At no point have I claimed otherwise.
It will however not be civilization ending. It's not an existential threat to humanity like an asteroid impact or super volcano eruption would be.
According to WHO: "Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year, from undernutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress alone."
Also: "Even after accounting for adaptation, an additional 1.5 million people die per year from climate change by 2100 if past emissions trends continue."
That's about the same as what road accidents or diabetes kills every year.
It will be civilization ending. I never said it would kill every single person. There may still be people but 100 years from now, everyone's fucked. Further ahead, 200 years, 500 years, definitely no future there
According to who? I'm sure you can link me some study to back up those claims.
I think that depends on how you define 'civilisation'. My inclination is that most people would say civilisation has ended if life is drastically different to how they perceive their life/world they live in. Think 'civilisation as we know it' rather than a dictionary definition.
However, I disagree that it's not an existentisl threat, if only on the basis of possible crop failiures on a massive scale (reduced crop yields are a global issue already). Don't underestimate the impact of food shortages on everything else, we in the west have become accustomed to easy access to food.
An asteroid impact or super volcano eruption has the potential to kill every single human on earth and end the human race. That's what I mean by existential threat. I feel like many people think of climate change as something that's on the same scale but it really isn't. Saying stuff like "climate change will ruin us all" just isn't true. There are degrees of bad and while climate change definitely is up there in the bad end of the spectrum there's still events that are orders of magnitude worse.
If we trigger tipping point after tipping point, we can turn earth into venus. You're just wrong.
What am I wrong about? What happened to Venus was caused by the eruption of super volcanoes. That's the exact example I used above of an actual existential threat.
I don't know the details, but I'm pretty sure greenhouse effect has something to do with it.
But it doesn't matter, it's beside the point. This person obviously means global warming could make the planet much hotter than we want, inhabitably hot like Venus. Not that we are literally Venus
Doomerism is a vibe. You're gonna have a hard time talking people down around these parts.
Indeed, in terms of sudden impact and method of impact, no they are very different, and climate change probably won't go so far as to make the human race extinct, at least not for a very long time. However, whether or not it will be catastrophic for the human race within the next 100-200 years no-one can accurately predict, given we do not know how much we'll do to stop it before it's too late (bare in mind that some scientists already believe the tipping point beyond which we can no longer stop it is well upon us).
As mentioned, the collapse of farming may well undermine any efforts to stop climate change given the big knock on negative impact on the world economy. Though that could also save us as there'd be a sudden massive drop in fossil fuel use and carbon emissions in such a scenario. There's a lot of variables, but a catastrophic collapse is definitely a possibility. I think the human race is capable of saving itself from this, but capitalism and the corporate economy I fear stand in its way.
At this level killing all humans vs killing/crippling almost all is irrelevant.
Climate change is not going to kill/cripple "almost all" humans. Not even close. Even the most extreme climate models don't forecast anything like this.