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this post was submitted on 28 Dec 2023
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Yeah and it’s been Russian military strategy for nearly as long. Idk if Russia will win, but as it is now both countries will struggle under the weight of the loss of population and resources and immense debt that they’re incurring. For Ukraine it’s obviously worth it, but for Russia, I struggle to see how it’s worth it because even victory will come with an angry edge province and political instability.
You are correct in my opinion. It seems whoever orchestrated that thought it would be the second Crimea, forgot Ukraine had 8 years to prepare (even with a shared soviet corruption problems and cheap traitors) and completely ignored the historical case of their resistance in and post WW2. One magazine even published a postponned article summarizing the achievements of russian warriors, and there were public persons speculating about taking Kiyv in three days. Even if you ignore them normalizing of such an act at all, they were sniffing their farts while planning it and thinking it'd go alright.
Mostly because I think Russian high command was telling Putin whatever he wanted to hear. "Yeah boss, sure, we'll just steamroll into Kyiv, nobody will dare fight back against us..." Keep in mind Russia had tried this EXACT same "rush and decapitate" strategy in Georgia in 2008.
Ukraine has oil reserves that Russia has eyes on. There's the solution to your equation.
Victory would mean Russia has killed most of the Ukrainians who would fight back.