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this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2023
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Pandemic-disrupted supply chains are pretty much righted. Inflation is already back near normal levels. Labor shortages have eased. The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates next year.
We'll still get a thousand stories about a looming recession.
Inflation is back near normal, but prices are not, and wages have not shifted to match those prices (partially due to the government fighting "wage inflation"). People are still worse off than they used to be. I don't think this is Biden's fault, but here we are anyway.
Biden has called this out. A lot of companies are still raising prices or aren't letting prices fall. They're still saying "oh, this is inflation causing this" while their costs fall and their profits rise.
Biden can't stop them singlehandedly. (He's a President, not a Supreme Dictator.) But he can call them out on it and use what powers he has to bear down on them somewhat if they don't stop.
It might not get all of them to stop (some might risk fines because the profits would be greater), but hopefully it will direct the anger towards the actual culprits - big companies taking advantage of past inflation to raise prices.
No but since he couldn't stop them he decided the working class would pay the price and had the Federal Reserve fuck over the American people.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/deflation-inflation-november-2023-in-one-chart.html
https://fortune.com/2023/12/12/wage-growth-exceeded-inflation-jec-democrats/
Those articles sure dont reflect the reality of me or anyone I know, by even a smidge
Personal feelings aside, those are the numbers. Empirical evidence that what people think is just plain wrong. Why? I suspect what Biden is saying is true.
Empirical evidence says I still have to skip grocery trips, and cant afford to fix my car.
So... I trust my lived in life over your numbers
Me and everybody I know are doing great. My empirical evidence seems to disagree with yours.
Too bad nothing can be done about that. If only someone, maybe a government agency, could collect all the data and determine how the country is doing as a whole.
Saying "the economy is turning up and things are getting better" when nothing changed is a lot different than saying "its all going to hell" when no one is struggling.
If you dont grok the difference, you were probably not at risk of the economy fucking you over like how people are frustrated about
But things have changed, that's the point. While individual experiences vary, all the economic data this year has been pretty stellar.
Reducing inflation this fast without tanking the economy, and not just not tanking it, actually having pretty decent economic numbers is a major achievement.
When the Fed stated raising rates to curtail inflation almost everyone thought there was no way to do it without a recession, maybe a major one, and increasing unemployment 2-3X. The "soft landing" seemed like a naive hope. We're not all the way there yet but it looks like they actually did it. Inflation is almost down to targets and at the same time, unemployment is still low, GDP growth is good, real wage growth beats inflation, etc.
It's not all blowjobs and caviar for everyone but we were heading for a major disaster and it's been avoided.
Except food is still extremely expensive, and real peoples dollars arent worth more, or getting paid more. The economic data doesnt seem to take into account things that actually matter to people who dont wear suits and golf.
Everyone has personal experiences which shape their thinking, that doesn’t mean their thinking is correct or even any more true than someone else's. I can trust that I feel what 2 feet is on a board, but it's better if I measure it before I cut it.
If I want to measure a board, I don't consult a magazine*. I use a tape measure.
Similarly, if I want to know how I'm doing financially, I'll check my bank account balance before the network that continues to employ Jim Cramer.
*even if I were measuring in potrzebie, I would convert from the imperial units already on my tape measure instead of hunting down a copy of MAD Magazine issue 26. I respect Donald Knuth, but there are limits.
Deflation is bad. I promise you do not want what you are suggesting is required.
Infinite growth is impossible. Money is made up and stupid.
Okay, let's say infinite growth is impossible. That seems intuitive. If that's true, where's the ceiling? It sounds like you're worried that we're going to hit it and bounce off, so maybe we should be planning for this event. What would be the best things for us to do as a species to prepare for this potentially cataclysmic event?
You're made up and stupid. 😂 Just kidding, money IS made up, but it certainly isn't stupid. Money doesn't have any inherent intelligence, obviously, but I think your implying that we are stupid to keep using it as a medium of exchange? What would be a better alternative? Going back to the barter system?
Idk, money definitely seems better than that. It allows for greater skill specialization and for the construction of more complex economic systems. I know that can seem scary because there's so much going on to keep track of, but arguably most people participating in society prefer it this way.
Lol the people in this thread are piiiiiiiiiiiiissed. I've never seen factual, tame macroeconomics 101 get downvoted so hard like this.
Lemmings know a lot about operating systems, but by god do they make Raegan look like a triple PhD in economics.
"Deflation is bad" is somehow a hot take around here because it's either "I want prices to be back at 2019 levels and I refuse to hear that the resulting crisis will be worse than the Great Depression" or "I want to intentionally crash the economy to starve half the population to death and implement my stalinist policies. not necessarily in that order".
Or, deflation is bad isn't economics 101. It certainly wasn't when I took economics 101. What's bad is deflationary death spirals. Those have certain causes though and aren't just something that happens with mild deflation over a long term. We know this because Japan actually went though a long period of mild deflation. And they aren't having a great depression.
For the record hyper inflationary death spirals are also possible. But nobody in finance wants to demonize inflation because that's how they get paid. Fun fact, a fast way to get a hyper inflationary cycle is to print a shit ton of money and only give it to rich people. Then have a ton of credit build up and get it all called in at the same time. We aren't quite there yet, but not for lack of trying!
Infinite substantive growth is impossible. Infinite monetary growth is possible. The entire point of fiat currency is to not limit it with physical items.
People are looking at inflation dropping, thinking that's an immediate fix. They're forgetting that inflation is a measure of velocity. The ground that prices gained isn't being eaten back up unless inflation goes to an effective negative compared to income.
That's not why people are feeling pessimistic. Too much of the economic recovery is going to corporate profits and capitalist shareholders. The federal minimum wage is still half of a poverty wage, and the rent is still too damn high. The hyperinflation of the pandemic has made working for a living unsustainable. Taking inflation from 9% to 3% is great (setting aside for this conversation that any President shouldn't really take credit for economic matters) but it's reduce the rate at which a bad thing is getting worse. Existence is still unaffordable even with everybody employed. That's not spin, that's just the reality we've all been living in for a long time. The twin disasters of Trump and the pandemic put it all in stark relief, laying bare the grift of conservativism.
Biden is struggling because he's trying to play old politics. We've crossed the rubicon. Going back to normal isn't enough for people to feel hopeful, and reducing the rate of collapse isn't leadership. Biden thinks being at the helm while the ship slowly rights itself is the same as leadership, and there are enough people attacking him from the extreme other side that nobody is particularly happy with him.
Everything you said is absolutely true and I agree with what is and should be happening.
However, the article is saying that surveyed people think the economy is crashing and unemployment is high.
I think it's fair for Biden to say, "hey, you fuckers keep telling me you want capitalism. This is what capitalism looks like. This is success in capitalism. It's up to the unions at this point in a capitalist system."
Even though like you said it isn't working. But not for the reasons why media makes it seem, which is what turns people to the right thinking that more extreme capitalism and deregulation will fix it!
The looming recession talk is over. They’re ready to start making real money in the stock market again and are tired of the impact the recession talk had this year. It’s no surprise that it’s been about bang on a year since the recession talk started as we came into 2023 and the stock market hit record highs as we’re coming into 2024.
It was all fabricated for… reasons. Big orgs wanted to lay people off for some reason. Investment bankers wanted to gobble up securities for cheaper. Real estate firms wanted to drive down the real cost of homes (higher interest rates = lower sale price but higher cost to families, firms benefit by paying cash). They wanted it so they made it happen. They no longer want it so it’ll end.
Indeed. Much as though I like my payments from JP Morgan, Jamie Diamon was one of the first to scream recession. He did that to increase his own wealth, not any other reason.
Americans are not stupid. You will not convince them the economy is good by spitting out some numbers twisted from the data. They feel it. They know how easy or hard it is to make ends meet. They know their rent goes up every year while their wages do not.
And the harder is gets, the more radical the population becomes. Establishment democrats like Biden will not be able to maintain the status quo. Normally I wouldn't care but their incompetence has consequences. A Trump victory at this point may signal the end of the US as we know it. We cannot continue to stay asleep at the wheel.
Your purchasing power has fallen over 20% in the last 3 years. We're talking and average of around 7% real inflation per year. Not the official "~3%" the government puts out. That's over 3x higher than average over the last 4 decades.
I prefer not to depend on feelings. My feelings can sometimes be wrong.. isolated data is not a prefered indicator, because it must be interpreted to be meaningful.
I've put several links in this string that should address your point.
Feelings decide elections, not numbers. And a large majority of Americans do not have confidence in the economy.
These people, living day in and out under the system intuitively understand their position, even if they can't spit out figures at you. They recognize their lives are harder than their grandparents. They recognize they are working for less year after year.
Many of us are privileged- I know I am. We make good money working from home, not having any issues paying our expenses and saving for the future.
But we cannot let that privilege blind us into believing misleading optimistic figures. We are on the edge of a precipice, both economically, financially, and militarily. If the left doesn't do something soon, we will lose the next decade to fascism.
The economy has been bad, but that doesn't change that it is getting better on many important metrics. These are leading indicators, predicting what will be, but the effects that people are feeling are more like lagging indicators that are reacting to the past and present. Hopefully we see these predictions play out in the next year before the election and into the next presidency.
What we're going to see is a slight boost in the coming months as the federal reserve lowers the interest rate (by coincidence, also an election year 🤔)
But with the interest rate going down, the main barrier holding us back from higher inflation is being torn down. What will be the consequences of this? Prices will rise.
I think they are betting that the Ukrainian war ends in the next few months. If not ends, at least becomes a frozen conflict. This would remove a large inflationary pressure from the global system.
It's a gamble. Perhaps they even are negotiating with Russia behind the scenes. Russian high-level officials were spotted flying to DC last week.
We'll have to see. Hopefully they can end the war and lower interest rates. That would in effect give a large boost right before the 2024 election. Is that enough to pry the election away from Trump? I don't know. Biden is incredibly unpopular (even more unpopular than Trump at this same time! One of the least popular presidents in history).
That's true but peoples wages haven't gone up at a rate that keeps pace so everyone still feels poor and can't buy the things they need. That's the big issue. That's not been fixed and there is no plan to fix it. Now we all just have to wait around until our wages start to increase but we all know how long that takes.
The problem is that there is no way to fix it without fucking shit up worse. Attempting to create deflation is bad for everyone as the economy will stop growing which will lead to job loss. A recession is another way to get it done, but then that would require high levels of unemployment, and still won't bring prices down.
We're seeing the best possible outcome right now where inflation is down and wages are rising faster than it, and housing prices are coming down, meaning we are on track for the issue of unaffordability to go away. The Fed seems to have pulled off what most people thought was impossible: a soft landing.
We're possibly witnessing something absolutely amazing. This is not to detract from the struggles people are experiencing, but the fact that they don't recognize how much better off they are then how it could have been is disappointing.
When I read the Forbes link I provided, I see that wages kept place with inflation for the last 2 and a half years. When I look at the news, I see unions getting wage consessions. Inflation was a factor, but that's been mitigated
You're speaking as if the majority of American workers are in a union.
You mean the paywalled link and the gaslighting CNBC article? The government's own numbers put median wage increase vs inflation at -8 for the 2021-2023 period.
Alternatively, "The Economy Is Booming And Everyone Is Doing Better, Here's Why This Is Bad News For Biden!"
Depends on how much of your income goes toward food.
Our food spend has tripled if not more over the past couple years.
If that was 2% of your net income, then spending 6% on food now isn't so bad.
If food spend was 10% of your net income, then switching to paying 30% of your income is a big fucking problem.