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this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2023
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Ukraine
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The issue is that Soviet era crap can run dirty ammo. The west is in a real fight, trying to keep up. Once the industry spins up, it'll be fine, but it takes time, which will cost Ukraine. The Russians, meanwhile, have essentially unlimited manpower. We didn't do enough, to start with, and now it'll be impossible, if the wrong people get into power during the elections. We've failed Ukraine.
When the 1950s ammo runs out, what then?
Not sure, but Russia has already begun the process of turning factories, and reportedly even bakeries, into munitions producing facilities. Both sides are gearing up for a long war, and that, I think, is more beneficial for Russia. The west's attention is already being dragged to the middle east, the manpower is heavily in Russia's favor, and again... The next election could stop aid to Ukraine in a flash. It's unreal, how hard we dropped the ball.
@Redditgee @ag10n
My read is that defence is much easier than attack, nowadays; and that favours Russia's current position. I agree re the resource balance - not least because it must always have been the basis of Putin's thinking.
Ukraine has had a rough few months, for sure. It appears that the Russians have outdone their own doctrine, when it comes to the surovikin line, dooming the Ukrainian offensive. Long term, I don't think Russia has enough skilled troops to conduct another serious offensive, but I think they're content to occupy eastern Ukraine. At least until everything is replenished in twenty years, and they decide to move again. The western style of maneuver warfare hasn't proven fruitful, and that is likely because Ukraine is unable to get and maintain air superiority. But that goes back to my point - the west took too long and sent too little. It's easy to see why Ukraine is frustrated with the supply situation, and now fatigue is setting in with a lot of people in the US. We've fumbled plenty of foreign relations in the past, but this seems like the most justifiable war since WWII, and we're failing the test.