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Rule of 400
(lemmy.blahaj.zone)
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this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2023
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I don't want to be that guy but 8 billion divided by 400 is 20 million. So to get a global average you would multiply the number here by 20 million.... 20 million people are not shot every day
Are you conflating the global population and US shots? I don't trust the gun stats I found, so I left them out of my fact check in the other comments. Added sources for those and OP is pretty accurate overall.
That's world stats because I wasn't sure what it was counting. The US is 827k
This is not an argument about whether or not the stats are accurate but: I think they're talking about the US, not the world.
If that is the case than 827,000 people are shot every day in the US... That's not right either.
It's literally math for what they are saying when one person out of 400 is shot and it is scaled up to the US population. Even if it was rounded from .5 in a set of 400 that's still over 400k The actual number is 316 per day. Still a bad number but that is .1% of the number they have given
Not to mention one everyday would be 365 out of 400 every year. Clearly, ~90% of the population isn't getting shot every year.
Shot doesn't mean dead and one person can receive multiple gunshot wounds in a year.
There's just one poor unlucky guy who drives the average up. Keeps surviving though
Bullet wounds Goreg, who spends his free time insulting people with guns and is shot 10,000 a day, was an outlier and should not have been counted.
Yes. Still, 90% of the population isn't getting shot every year and a couple of people aren't going to make up for it with multiple gunshot wounds.
That being said, whatever the real percentage is, it's still too high
Oh, yes, 1 in 400 is still the wrong proportion, but I guess you can't say a quarter of a person is shot every 8 months or whatever it would be, if you're just trying to make a quick and concise point.
Then why choose 400 people, or why include the shooting stat once they went with 400? The number would very much round down to zero, and the post says at least 1 person per day which means that's the lower bound
How would I know? I didn't make the post. What if they based it off of a very specific day where a lot of people got shot?
That still means everyone in the US is shot in just over a year. That's not right
By my math, at this scale it would be one person shot roughly every 7 years. That's still kinda scary.
That isn't right. 1 in 400 means in 400 days everyone has been shot once
The number provided in the post is inaccurate to a real-world scale of US shootings. One person shot every seven years is instead accurate to real world data if the US population were scaled to 400 people.
What number do you have for the actual number? The number I found said 316 every day which makes it about 1 million years with population
316 shootings per day, every day for 7 years, is 807,380 people shot. 807,380 into 331,000,000 (the US population) is one in 400. Therefore if the US population were 400 people, there would be one person shot every 7 years.
Ok I see, same answer just shown different
How did you get 1 million years?
316 people a day times 1 million is 316 million people technically it takes a bit longer but the time scale is so large it's irrelevant
I think your math is off there. First, you're forgetting that there's 365 days in a year. Then you're forgetting that the scale is 400 people. Yours basically said that shootings irl are only happening once per year instead of once per day, and the US pop is only 1 person.
Only 332 million people in the US ๐
Yep that's why that number is probably wrong