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Technology
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I absolutely think that the numbers are correct. If Reddit is a habit for you you will not break it immediately (unless you really dislike the changes). This is just time spent, not how much users enjoy it. And if they don't enjoy the content as much because the quality dropped they will start looking for alternatives. But for most that is a long term thing.
Although not conclusive if you do a Google keyword search for "Reddit alternatives" the numbers go stratospheric in the last 2 weeks.
If people wanting to leave Reddit work normal levels, there wouldn't have been such a huge spike in searches.
I would love to see statistics on OC by account age before the blackout and now.
Everyone who made reddit what it was is gone. Period.