49
The momentum of the solar energy transition
(www.nature.com)
Due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies
Seems too conservative projection for wind energy, but yeah most experts agree solar will be dominant.
I mean I understand this is modeling a pathway with no further climate policy, but still wind being second cheapest option should gain more share.
I think the assumption is that since they are large and but the first most cost efficient, it doesn't make sense to increase its share. Why not just put more solar instead?
I see from this paper that compared with Way et al. (2022), they introduced "learning in operational costs, rather than only in CAPEX", which benefits solar and offshore wind, also "solar power and wind energy see a higher learning rate than previous model versions". So very surprised wind not gaining more.
It is difficult to compare the results of Way et al. (2022) and this paper directly since in the former final and usable energy were reported and here it is electricity that is reported in the text, although from their relative share (both across time and wind vs solar at a given time), the conditions for solar is probably more favorable and wind growth is more constrained in this paper.
(Note: if I recalled correctly, Way et al. were the first to develop this system dynamics model that made learning rates endogenous feedback processes.)