Here's what will happen; because I don't see how it won't happen again. After the war, Russia will be a broken state financially. But all Western powers will be too chicken shit to let the country break up into smaller independent states. Some nation will get greedy and start pouring money and investment into Russia because the war is officially over and "relations must normalize". All the old power structures stay in place, but titles will change. World still on the edge of disaster.