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this post was submitted on 16 Aug 2026
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The question was why prices would go up after China had control of the chip factories. That's an entirely separate question from how many of the chip factories would survive.
But it's also crazy to think that China would invade with boots on the ground. They've shown repeatedly that they can enforce 100% naval blockades on a moments notice and keep it up as long as they like. They can literally go back to medieval tactics and win via siege. That keeps Chinese military assets and personnel safe while also preserving infrastructure.
You're absolutely right that it almost certainly wouldn't continue without a hitch. The blockade would stop all the raw material shipments and all the exports. Despite claims that Taiwan would blow up the factories themselves, I don't see why they would; once a takeover was underway blowing them up wouldn't serve as a deterrent but it would remove the ability to use them for negotiations.