I see a lot of people online arguing things like "ackshually it was the importers who directly paid the tariffs" as though it's their gotcha moment. And most responses to that simply double down on the "but they passed the cost along to consumers".

Obviously the fact that the tariff costs were passed to consumers in the form of higher prices on tariffed items is true AND the fact that importers directly paid is true. The people arguing/debating against paying the refunds directly to consumers don't care because they're being intentionally pedantic, so technically they're right!

What I don't see many/any people pushing back with is that the economic punch to consumers from the tariffs wasn't just the cost of the tariffs themselves.

Pretty much all products, even those that weren't subject to tariffs (ex: those assembled / produced domestically) raised their prices as well. It's a combination of factors.

Some of it is that they could raise prices just below the price of things with tariffs and still be the more affordable option, doing otherwise was leaving money on the table. Some of it was simple supply and demand, less stuff getting imported, less supply domestically (at least until the tariffs were off again or until domestic production could catch up). And then finally, most of what's produced domestically still relies on foreign inputs that were subject to tariffs -- higher cost of parts, higher cost for the product.

The point being: This is just one example of how the tariffs indirectly made things more expensive, besides just the direct costs that were passed on to consumers.

Also, lots of small businesses closed down entirely in response to the tariffs -- razor thin margins and the price increases were the final straw. So, it was just another step in the direction of the big corporate entities win and the small businesses lose.

As for companies getting the refunds and promising to lower prices in response, we obviously all know that's a lie. I'll believe it when coffee and beef are immediately cheaper than they were in January 2025, which let's be honest, never gonna happen.