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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2026
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How do "most betters lose money"? The way I understand it there's a winner for every loser, no?
Bets aren't 1-1.
You can have one person with insider information win a seemingly impossible bet against 1000 people taking the other side.
The person who wins takes in a ton of money, and Polymarket takes a cut.
Each of those 1000 people all thought they had an easy win, but the only people winning these bets are people who either are the people making the decisions, or who are in the room with the people making those decisions.
Or they're in a position where they can affect the outcome, without being directly involved.
Like the recent controversies over people harassing a journalist because they'd made a bet, and then the journalist didn't report their desired outcome, or potentially interfering with weather equipment to win a bet.
That means the wins are concentrated to a few while the losses are spread out
That winner is the house. Most players lose.