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this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2023
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I think a good analogue is the invention of the typewriter or the digital calculator. Its not like its something that hadn't been conceived of or that we didn't have correlatives for. Is it revolutionary? Yes, the world will change (has changed) because of it. But the really big deal is that this puts a big bright signpost of how things will go far off into the future. The typewriter led to the digital typewriter. The digital typewriter showed the demand for personal business machines like the first apples.
Its not just about where were at (and to be clear, I am firmly in the 'this changed the world camp'. I realize not everyone holds that view; but as a daily user/ builder, its my strong opinion that the world changed with the release of chatgpt, even if you can't tell yet.), the broader point is about where we're going.
The dismissiveness I've seen around this tech is frankly, hilarious. I get that its sporting to be a curmudgeon, but to dismiss this technology will be to have completely missed what will be one of the most influential human technologies to have been invented. Is this general intelligence? To keep pretending it has to be AGI or nothing is to miss the entire damn point. And this goal post shifting is how the frog gets slowly boiled.
I reckon it’s somewhere in between. I really don’t think it’s going to be the revolution they pitched, or some feared. It’s also not going to be completely dismissed.
I was very excited when I started to play with various AI tools, then about two weeks in I realized how limited they are and how they need a lot of human input and editing to produce a good output. There’s a ton of hype and it’s had little impact on the regular persons life.
Biggest application of AI I’ve seen to date? Making presidents talk about weed, etc.
Do you use it regularly or develop ML/ AI applications?
Yes. I wrote my masters in engineering about MLAI (before chatgpt and YOLO became popular and viable), and am also currently working with multi-object detection and tracking using MLAI.
It's not gonna be like the invention of the modern computer, but it's probably gonna reach about the same level as Google, or the electronic typing machine.
I use some image generation tools and LLMs.
I think it's a safe bet to estimate it will work out to be somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. I don't think AI/ML is going to be worthless, but I also don't think it's going to do all these terrible things people are afraid of. It will find its applications and be another tool we have.
I agree. I also think sending the request "Here is an example of a bluetooth driver for linux. It isn't working any more be cause of a kernal update (available here). Please update the driver and test it please. You have access to the port and there is a bluetooth device available for connection. Please develop a solution, test it, write a unit test, and make commits along the way (with comments please). Also, if you have any issues, email me at example@example.com, and I'll hop back online to help you. Otherwise, keep working until you are finished and have a working driver."
Are we there yet? No, I've tried some of the recursive implementations and I'm yet to have them generate something completely functional. But there is a clear path from the current technology to that implementation. Its inevitable.