Thread image created by yours truly, depicting Iran and Pakistan very impolitely not asking whether America, on the other side of the planet, is okay with them transporting gas around.
The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline has long been obstructed by American involvement in the region. Iran completed its section of the pipeline quite quickly, but Pakistan has been unable to finish its construction for a decade due to the fear of falling afoul of American sanctions on Iran. The United States has repeatedly tried to pressure Pakistan to give up the project and obtain gas from other countries instead. Recent articles on the state of the pipeline are contradictory, with some stating that Iran or Pakistan have given up on the pipeline while American sanctions persist. Pakistani officials reject this framing, saying that they are still working with Iran to try and get the project completed somehow. Nonetheless, Iran is becoming increasingly frustrated and is threatening a legal battle and a demand for reparations.
Meanwhile, back in Niger, the $13 billion under-construction pipeline connecting Nigeria and other West African countries to Spain and Italy will likely face delays due to the sanctions applied by the West and ECOWAS on Niger. Those following the European gas fiasco will be aware that while Spain and Italy have been impacted by the energy crisis, they have been very busy making deals with African countries to replace their Russian gas, and thus stand a better chance than Germany of making it through the crisis with their industries somewhat intact. The coup has thrown a wrench into their plans, though they can still obtain some gas from northern African countries.
And, last but not least, America tried for years to stop the construction of the Nord Stream pipelines between Germany and Russia, which culminated in them deciding to blow them up late last year.
All in all - the United States really does not like it when countries build up energy infrastructure and gain some independence from them.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
This week's first update is here in the comments.
This week's second update is here in the comments.
Links and Stuff
The bulletins site is down.
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can.
Resources For Understanding The War
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
I think considering the failure of the couteroffensive, as well as the delays in Western equipment and the severity of Russian rocket attacks it's fair to say that Ukraine is operating at a pretty large materiel disadvantage. Also we've seen the problems faced by the Ukrainians when it comes to conscription, seemingly coming to a head with the firing of the enlistment guys. So without sounding like a bot, what exactly is holding the Ukrainians together? Pure ideology? and an (understandable imo) unwillingness for big arrows from Wide Putin? Or am I overestimating the damage dealt to Ukraine's ability to wage war?
Thinking about it, this war isn't going to end for a very long time unless Putin comes up with some "knockout blow" or Ukraine has a drastic change in management. Or maybe they really will fight to the last Ukranian.
Nazi Germany lost the war a couple years before the actual final defeat and end of WW2. So even if officials on both sides were saying, publicly or privately, "Shit, I think it's all over, we can't defeat the Russians or push them out of our territory," the war could still continue for many months, even a year or two. It does seem to me a lot like the failure of the counteroffensive is that same moment for us here, though obviously it's easier to tell these things retroactively.
Ukraine has the advantage of not needing to devote their manpower to anything other than sending people to the front, as they're getting their equipment from the West and getting repairs done by the Poles, so I think Ukraine still possesses the ability to wage war and will continue to possess it for the rest of the year at least. Honestly they might even have another counteroffensive attempt in them, though it'll be even more of a farce than this one.
Honestly could see the war lasting indefinitely a la Korea where a ceasefire is reached though western Ukraine will never recognize the sovereignty of eastern Ukraine under Russia and they just keep the artillery pointed at each other forever. The way the war has ground into WWI style trench fighting with heavy shelling it’s hard to believe there will be anymore major breakthroughs, or at the least it’s hard to imagine either side thinking it’s worth it to shove the amount of men and material into the grinder that would be necessary to succeed. Russia gets its buffer zone and the US gets another regional power to dump arms and troops into
Ideology : Ukraine has upped their propaganda to extreme levels since 2014. There's rabid nationalism and them basing their entire cultural identity on being anti-Russian.
Ban on men from leaving the country, this also makes their families stay in Ukraine. These people are conscripted randomly.
Fear is also factor. Nazi paramilitaries in Ukraine have significant political power and going against them could lead to drastic consequences. These groups have already done pogroms against certain groups and run a reign of terror even Zelensky was not fond of when he initially became president.
Also the entirety of western and ukrainian press pretending that Ukraine is winning overwhelmingly with zero causalities probably plays a part.