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What's some really unpopular opinion you have?
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Deterence is not a great strategy for preventing crime. Criminals don't actually do much cost benefit analysis before committing a crime; they will consider the chances they have of getting caught, but not the severity of the punishment. Rehabilitation programs are worth considering over punitive justice so long as they are more effective at preventing recidivism, which is certainly an interest for a state.
Is this survivorship bias?
"Criminals don't consider whatever about committing crimes" doesn't seem representative of people in general.
I agree that deterence is not a great strategy, it's just an odd way to phrase your point.