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this post was submitted on 09 Dec 2025
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Don’t look at the front lines. Look at the Russian economy. It’s more likely that the Russian economy collapses or Putin is overthrown due to some internal power struggles or uprising than it is for Ukraine to militarily defeat Russia.
That is as long as the West continues to support Ukraine with the bare minimum to bleed both sides continuously.
This is an underestimation of Russia's economic realignment from West to East. Primarily with China and to a lesser extent India. It's hubris to assume that Russia has to have a robust economic relationship with the West to remain solvent.
They are China's bitch now. Not sure that's a realignment.
Financially it's a lucrative one and makes them more resilient to Western sanctions. China is on a trajectory to surpass the US economy in 10 years. Wealth, power and influence are gradually drifting East and South so it's important for Western leaders to adapt now instead of disregarding reality and becoming more entrenched. Being forced to align economically with China will likely be to Russia's long term benefit.
The West (particularly US) is currently doubling down on AGI and fossil fuels (US and Canada). The AGI bet can definitely blow up in its face in the short term. Emerging markets are already pivoting hard to renewables so fossil fuels may not be as good a long term bet as they're hoping. The EU is a stagnant market and the UK is still limping after shooting itself in the foot with Brexit. Many of these countries are now tied up by infighting over immigration, impacting their ability to project power.
The only absolute advantage is the massive defense spending but even the majority of that is by the US so if they decide to leave the rest of the West to fend for themselves then all bets are off.
China is just waiting for Russia to weaken itself so they can take Outer Manchuria back without a fight.
How would you look at the Russian economy?
The best measure I can think of is GDP growth. It can be hard to estimate but it shows the change in an economy over time. The most accurate data I know of for that is the World Bank.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2024&locations=US-RU-CN-JP-IN-GB-FR-DE-IT-CA&start=2019
You'll notice that for most of that period, which includes the entire Ukraine war, Russia's economy has been solidly on par with the other 9 largest economies in the world. They still have active trading relations with most of the world https://www.volza.com/global-trade-data/russia-export-trade-data/russia-export-trading-partners/
At the current rates, Ukraine will bleed out before Russia does.
Increased spending on war machines increases GDP. It's not good for the country though. The opportunity cost is huge
Do you have a better measure of the economy?
Both Russia and Ukraine are destroying each other's infrastructure do you have some data that shows Russia is suffering more from it than Ukraine is?
Real private consumption or net national product
I never claimed Ukraine was suffering less, don't twist my words. Russia invaded Ukraine, twice.
The whole point of looking at their economies instead of the front lines in this thread is to find an alternate estimate of the trend of the war. The fronts are steadily moving west. If the hope is to end the war by waiting for Russia's economy to collapse, it has to happen before Ukraine's does.
Russia doesn't need to have a strong economy for that, just stronger than Ukraine's.
And? Did you look at those measures?
Yes. I can't see anything in those measures to suggest that economic factors will force Russia's hand in time to be useful to Ukraine.
We have some US and EU leaders who seem to be racing Russia to try to collapse their own economies first but there's still hope that wiser policies will prevail.
Lol Russia's economy is smaller than fucking Italy's you tankard
Tankard? Are you trying to create a portmanteau out of tankie and retard? Are you calling me a drinking vessel?
WTF?
Yes
Gross National Income
Sure. That's a very reasonable measure too. Can you find GNI data that suggests that Russia's economy will collapse soon enough for it to be useful for Ukraine?
Not going to waste my time. How about Russia dipping into its gold reserves?
Then why even reply? The whole point of this thread is to examine evidence of realistic claims about Russia and Ukraine. If you present evidence that you haven' tbothered to look at yourself why would anyone think it supports your claim?
Sealion.
What evidience do you have? I never made a claim, I just provided a common metric that economists use to indicate indicate - something.
I posted evidence at the top of the thread. You're the one saying it's not good enough so I'm suggesting that you should be the one to provide better evidence to the contrary.
Western propaganda machine constantly pumps out information on Russia's economy being on the verge of collapse. I recall buying into it years ago and, well, we're still waiting.
I think it's a bit of old world thinking at work. In the post WW2 period the West controlled the vast majority of global capital so being blocked out of trade by us meant guaranteed economic despair (if you weren't big enough). The world is very different today but many Westerners (even in leadership) still perceive the world as if we're still in that era.
I think it's a combination of factors.
There's some amount of propaganda. Governments often try to convince people to confuse fact and fiction.
There's also an institutional momentum effect. Once you get a group of people together, they tend to recruit more people who think like them, so once an idea gets hold, it's hard to get rid of.
And there's the sensationalism effect. There are many possible predictions for the future; the extreme ones are more fun to read.
A repeat of 1917, basically.