this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2023
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OK, these numbers are looking remarkably good. Definitely exceeding predictions that already had the measure being soundly defeated.
So I have to wonder... How far off are the polls nationally? We know the Republican party is shrinking, and we know that polls are getting harder to do because people under 50 tend not to answer cellphone calls from numbers they don't know.
Is it possible that next year will actually be a landslide for both Biden and Democrats in the House and Senate? I don't want to get too hopeful, but Ohio's kind of a bellwether, and this... This looks good. This looks very good.
Every year, 4 million people are newly eligible to vote as they turn 18, while 2.5 million people over the age of 65 lose their ability to vote due to death.
Pray for a landslide, prepare as if we're -2 under. I'm very optimistic.
Just remember that a minimum wage increase WON in Florida with a higher percentage than Trump, even tho both candidates opposed it. If Democrats don't run to progressive positions, they don't benefit from the public sentiment.
I personally think Biden wins by 80%
Republicans have near zero support in the United States and the 2024 election will be an embarrassment for them.
80% is a serious exaggeration. At least 25% of the electorate would vote for Trump even if he ate a baby on live television.
A live baby. With a dull spoon.
They'd say the baby must have deserved it for some reason. And hey, at least he didn't abort it!
Come to the rural south and you will find this isn't true sadly.
I think it's important to remember how close the election in 2020 was. Just looking at the popular vote:
81,282,916 for Biden 74,223,369 for Trump
46.9% of the people who voted wanted more of the same. I don't think that number has dropped much since then.
Trump still has the support of almost half the people in the United States. It might be easier mentally to forget that, but we can't let up. We have to treat the next election and every other election like our lives depend on it!
Suggesting that somehow ~62% of the Trump supporters from 2020 suddenly came to their senses seems pretty damn farfetched. If 10% of the people who voted for Biden in 2020 decide they don't need to bother in 2024 because "Republicans have near zero support", then Trump could win.
Personally, I believe if we have the same desperate need to defeat Trump in 2024, and drive turnout to the same degree, there might be a few percentage points increase in favor of Biden. If we relax and assume it's already won, we'll have another four years of Trump.