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I agree on much of your points and definitely acknowledge the risks of movements losing steam after achieving only modest wins. My take though is Tantrump's compulsive need for attention is why I think No Kings is not going to peter out on its own. Canada's boycotts were thought to have gone away but constant remarks of annexation have helped people en masse to maintain it.
I think it's important to recognize everyone's tolerance is different and Americans aren't used to protesting and striking like they do in Europe, Québec, parts of Asia and South America. Even top level commenters here voice hesitancy for the risks to their safety from the gestapo or provocateurs escalating things. The size and all-inclusiveness of these protests and sufficient advance preparation against violent provocations have kept it peaceful, and have successfully slowed down ICE agents' escalation. Despite federal agents still acting recklessly, if only the most dedicated and prepared folks were there then the media narratives of 'militant antifa rioters' would be believed by the general public.
Portland has laid bare Trump's entire plan is to "aura farm", and that it falls flat when it gets turned into a joke. The goal seems to be to project power when his government sends in the military to end all the crime, homelessness, drug use and dissent. Trump is weak, his government departments filled with incompetent hacks. His strongman image leaks air each month the US survives, so the further the momentum can be sustained the better.