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Come on guys...
(lemmy.dbzer0.com)
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this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2025
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Before you roll any dice, the chances of rolling two nat 1s are 1/400. But after you roll your first die, whatever it happened to be, your chances of rolling a nat 1 are 1/20. The chances of the entire scenario have no impact on the probability of the individual rolls
Right but the way I took the meme was that you would roll until you get a 1, then deciding the next roll is the "real" one.
brian@lemmy.ca The die doesn't know it just rolled a 1. History doesn't matter to it.
That's what the meme says, but probability doesn't work that way. If you want the result from a roll, what you've roller before has no bearing on the result from this roll. Thus the chance for a single d20 roll is always 1/20, or 5%.