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He's never joking. He's a genuine psychopath, he has no sense of humor. He's just learned to pretend like he has one to fool the normal humans without broken personalities. If he says it, he's serious.
He only presents it like a joke to get people used to the idea. Anyone that reacts with outrage at his statements are immediately mocked and denigrated as dramatic nonsensical leftists. Then when they actually do the thing they claimed would never happen, the tune changes from accusing the left of senseless hysteria to them accusing them of being anti-American, Pro-crime, etc etc.
Every step they take with the federalization of armed forces is to get the populace used to the idea of it happening. And, so far, that has been largely successful. So when they actually mobilize, there will be far less pushback.
Okay, so you've clearly been paying attention. Keep it up brother, I'm sure you've already figured out that there's a LOT of trouble ahead. We're not getting out of this without violence.
They will continue to escalate things until they take a major action like the Nazis did with the Night of Long Knives. It's just a matter of what that will be. I'm expecting something with Mexico. Since he has started talking about military incursions to deal with cartels, if applied to the strategy aforementioned, he's conditioning the public to get used to the idea. Then, when he invades Mexico and pisses off even more Americans, I think they're expecting riots in response. Once the riots happen, he will send in military not to occupy cities but to completely take them over.
Yeah, it will be Mexico. He can rally a significant portion of the population against "cartel terrorists," but he would have a hard time doing that against Canada. Plus, Canada is essentially England, and even an ignorant moron like him can figure out why that would be a bad idea.
And yeah, they are already staging it, "leaking" details, etc.