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I say double it. (feddit.ch)
submitted 1 year ago by LemmyLaLibre@feddit.ch to c/memes@lemmy.ml
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[-] ApfelstrudelWAKASAGI@feddit.de 17 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

You would need a crazy low probability of a lunatic or a mass murderer being down the line to justify not to kill one person

Edit: Sum(2^n (1-p)^(n-1) p) ~ Sum(2^n p) for p small. So you'd need a p= (2×2^32 -2) ~ 1/(8 billion) chance of catching a psycho for expected values to be equal. I.e. there is only a single person tops who would decide to kill all on earth.

[-] m0darn@lemmy.ca 7 points 1 year ago

Well what about the fact that after 34 people the entire population is tied to the tracks. What are the chances that one person out of 35 wants to destroy humanity?

Also thing the entire human population to the tracks is going to cause some major logistical problems, how are you going to feed them all?

[-] ApfelstrudelWAKASAGI@feddit.de 4 points 1 year ago

I just calculated the sum from n=0 to 32 (because 2^33>current global population). And that calculation implies that the chance of catching someone willing to kill all of humanity would have to be lower than 1/8 billion for the expected value of doubling it to be larger than just killing one person.

[-] m0darn@lemmy.ca 1 points 1 year ago

Yeah I think I was in a stupor when I commented. I don't think I even tried to understand your comment. My apologies. But now that I am trying, I am struggling to understand the notation.

[-] SeaJ@lemm.ee 4 points 1 year ago

Oh come on. A trolley is not going to have the momentum to kill that many people nor would the machinery make it through. The gears and whatnot would be totally gummed up after like 20 or so people.

[-] ChrisGrantsBrownlow@aussie.zone 6 points 1 year ago

You don't even need a lunatic or mass murderer. As you say, the logical choice is to kill one person. For the next person, the logical choice is to kill two people, and so on.

[-] ApfelstrudelWAKASAGI@feddit.de 17 points 1 year ago

It does create the funny paradox where, up to a certain point, a rational utilitarian would choose to kill and a rational mass murderer trying to maximise deaths would choose to double it.

this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2023
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