There's no reason to assume it's a constant rate. 10% during a time of absolute turmoil.

Why would a time of absolute turmoil mean people would switch parties more? Democrats wouldn't go to the GOP for competent pandemic management (remember that Biden won in part because of Trump's mishandling of the pandemic) and Republicans wouldn't even acknowledge the damn virus existed. If anything you'd expect both sides to stick to their side with small minorities switching sides (Democrats because of lockdowns and Republicans because of the pandemic).

We'll be ready to win something in 2033? We need to be faster.

If your point is that you need to be faster to stop fascism, then sorry to rain on your parade but electoral politics won't stop fascism either way. That ship sailed in 2024, or in 2020/2016 depending on how you look at it. If you're trying to organize a resistance you should be fighting for the hearts, minds and fucks to give of the people and pushing them into the streets; by the time you're going to the polls it'll all be over one way or the other.

And your point about tea party funding just means a progressive party would have even less success, wouldn't it?

No? The DNC will never give your progressive candidates funding anyway, by "giving absolutely nothing in return" I meant absolutely nothing. You get all the shackles and compromises and none of the benefits until your hostile takeover is complete in the far future (at which point you'll be already in concentration camps).

Next year even. Then we push mid level and up.

If you push one level per election you'll take at least those same six years before you're running for Congress so... uh... yeah.