79
Mainstreet polling, updated Mar 24
(lemmy.ca)
| Party | Seats | % | Change in Seats | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 192 | 44.4% | +39 | 93.2% | 6.3% |
| Conservative | 118 | 37.8% | -1 | 0.1% | 4.1% |
| Bloc | 26 | 6.3% | -7 | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | 6.7% | -19 | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | 1.4% | -1 | N/A | N/A |
| People's | 0 | 2.7% | -2.2% | N/A | N/A |
The long term warning is that if the LPC wins a majority and fails to reasonably address housing or general living costs we'll be back in this same position next cycle.
My hope is for a minority LPC government with either BQ or NDP forcing them away from neoliberalism - if that fails it's a long shot that Carney will turn his back on neoliberal economics... but Canada (and the world really) are at the breaking point from neoliberalism and we'll either gracefully correct or fall closer to authoritarianism and violence.
We need change - and we only have so many chances before a fucker like PP wins an election based on economic discontent and fucks us forever.
Edit: Just to be super clear - fuck the conservatives. I in no way desire them to end up in government and my statement comes from a place of rejecting anti-trans hate and embracing a sane environmental response to climate change.
I would have to think if the polls are right and the liberals manage to win a majority, the conservatives would have to do some real soul searching.
They'll just get angrier and play dirtier. That will be the result of their soul searching.