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this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2025
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China will take large chunks. But I think we will also see a decentralization as china won't be able to take it all. Countries like Turkey, Malaysia, Brazil and so on will probably increase their regional soft powers a lot.
This process also already started years ago, but will be catalyzed by this.
I mean, what would Europe need from russia? We're currently more of a "global power" then they are. Only countries seriously aligning themselves with Russia those days are either extremely weak and near russia and so have 0 choice in the matter or try to play both sides for fun and profit LARPing as Tito.
Cheap energy, labor, and resources and a slightly greater degree of independence from America.
Russia also still holds a lot of their traditional soft power in many countries, including several EU countries. They also greatly increased their softpower by helping to get far right parties into power or at least signinificant influence in several EU countries (like Orban or Germany just 2 days ago).
On the other hand Russia manouvered itself into a very weak geostrategical position lately (Ukraine and Syria). Everyone noticed that and this will likely lead to some restructuring in several regions, unlikely to be in Russias favour.
I currently find it really hard to make assumptions about Russias role in the mid-term future. That is also, why I didn't mention Russia in my post.
I don't see any country being able to engineer coups by supporting terrorists as effectively as the US, so I don't see Russia or other local powers replacing the US's influence in countries where the left presents a meaningful alternative to neoliberalism.
The UAE defintly showed that other countries can do this.
yes, sure, but resources, labour and a market isn't enough to elevate you to a global superpower. I'm not proposing EU going full Juche, just why would anyone agree to anything better for russia than being equal trade partners. All those things are great and useful, sure, but you're able to get them elsewhere. If you want special treatment you need to bring something unique to the table. Like the US used to be able to bring.
I don't think anybody except maybe putin is trying to do that. At this point everyone would love russia just fucking off and being normal.
The monumental level of troll farming performed by the Russian state suggests they are deserving of few allies.