this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2025
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Data is Beautiful
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The republic is so unbelievably done.
Next mid terms the right will sweep the elections with Belarus-levels of fraud, in 4 years there'll be an amendment to officiate the thousand-years reich.
In 10 years -- world war 3.
That long for a world war you think?
After the US has thrown Ukraine under the bus and carved it up with Russia, there will be a few quiet years as Europe arms itself and Russia re-arms. Then WW3 will kick off. Fuck knows which side the US will be on.
If Trump manages to remove all non loyal officers, an invasion of Canada, Mexico, and Greenland is in the cards over the next two or three years even.
The chance of the US military fracturing and a resulting civil war is non zero, if the purge of anti MAGA officers fails. California on its own has major bases for the navy, air force, and marines.
An American civil war would leave the US unable to respond strongly to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. China could use that opportunity to take the whole first island chain even.
Up until recently, I would have believed there was a chance for a few "quiet" years so a war can be started just when the incumbent president is up for reelection. Now that day might never come, so why not start some wars right now, subjugate whatever they can and throw the spoils of war to the population to quell unrest?
I don't think so. I want to believe that they're doing so much wanton destruction to the federal government's administrative capacity that we'll simply (and peacefully) balkanize into a more EU style trade confederation of economically interdependent but legislatively independent nations. If I had to guess causes for a hot shattering of the federation, it'd probably be starting shit in Canada. Nobody but these fucking assholes want to start shit with Canada, and I could see it as an opportunity for regions interested in independence to put out feelers for international recognition and support (and potentially getting it). Under previous administrations, it would have been night impossible, but tweedle dee and tweedle dumb are also taking a huge shit all over the intelligence agencies that would have squashed such movements previously.
We've always been at war with Eurasia
I like your optimism.
Note that the current situation was done in just a single month
Do you really think Trump will wait that long? I think we might be on an accelerated timeline.
Yeaup :(
They will try.
Within 4 years open weight AI will be smarter than the smartest human at just about everything.
The scale of what's ahead is so much larger than US sliding into fascism.
If it goes well, tyrants around the world are screwed.
If it goes badly everyone is screwed.
You might be right. You might be wrong. But you know what’s not in 4 years? Today. And today the US of A are going down a downhill path that saw the fall of another empire, the Soviet Union.
You wanna shoehorn AI into this? Sure, but good luck trying to run that AI when we’ll either be locked within a trade war or tariffed beyond recognition. I’m not being alarmist, by no means do I want this to happen, I just find it silly when people say “b-b-but AI!” In every discussion and minimize the importance of today for the promise of a future.
AI tools are great at making shit fast and cheap, including propaganda. That no doubt is affecting society, the rest I'll believe when I see.