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this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2024
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I mean... The general point still stands. It's not that western nations seriously doubt that Russia has these weapons. We know Russia has ICBMs, we know they have nukes, we know they're willing to attack Ukraine with conventional weapons.
What Western nations doubt is that Russia would actually attack them or use nukes, because it'd trigger a united response they'd lose against, and they know that and want to avoid it.
It's not about capabilities, but willingness.
Russia launched everything but the nuke. That should be the takeaway.
Yes, everyone knows they have nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, all that fun shit, everyone knows they have ICBMs.
They've implied verbally that there could be scenarios in which they'd feel justified with using a nuclear weapon, but they literally just launched everything but the nuke. It's a pretty major escalation.
I'm also not here to speculate as to whether it's a hollow threat, I'm just pointing out that launching an ICBM is a really big deal
Yeah, but a central tenet of nuclear deterrence is that you don't constantly posture your own position with nuclear armaments. If you keep saying if you cross this red line we'll go nuclear, and then don't ...... It makes future threats pretty laughable.
International nuclear relations have already been gamed out. It's always a last case scenario, because everyone has a sense of self preservation, especially the narcissistic types that like to be in charge of countries.
No one wants to live in a nuclear wasteland, so no one is going to create a nuclear wasteland unless they feel that they themselves are in immediate existential danger, and even then it would be an action made in spite.
This is part of the point I was trying to make