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this post was submitted on 10 Nov 2024
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I'm only wondering about the statistically improbable break between the state where they voted all Dems downballot but then swapped to Trump just for President.
This is so statistically unlikely, having one or two states this way would be improbable as hell, but (I am not claiming this is true) there are apparently many instances where this happened.
I'm not sharing any of this stuff I see but so far this is the one that got my eyebrow raised.
Missouri voted to legalize abortion again. Then elected the man who will get it banned nationally. Previously we voted to reduce dark money etc in local elections. And in the very next election repealed those restrictions again. People are fucking ignorant. Those in the state of misery doubly so.
Montana voted red all the way down except to protect abortion. Just last year they had kids argue to the state Supreme Court that they have rights when it comes to the environment, and they won.
I have no idea what is up or down anymore
I fully believe that the Rs pulled some sort of shady shit with ballots. For them 'every accusation is a confession' is an immutable law.
It doesn't matter, though, because the people who could do anything about it are on his team.
Completely agree. They said for months they had a better plan, Trump and Johnson had their little secret, elections have taken days in the past several yet this one ends almost immediately.
I completely believe that it could be legit, but I absolutely think that they managed to do something. And as you said, doesn't fucking matter even if they did.
Not in the past several, in the last one where the whole country had pretty universal vote by mail abilities.
Now it takes a while to count the vote in places like California which still have universal vote by mail, and the returns are near instant in other areas that used the "voter fraud" narratives to eliminate or drastically scale back their vote by mail initiatives.
I had suggested to people before that if you are not going to vote for President, at least vote down the ballot for local people and don't discard the whole election. Voting Democrat but then for Trump does seem very odd.
That actually makes a lot of sense. Trump didn't get significantly more votes than he got in 2020. Harris just got way less than Harris.
It's true that downballot Dems ran ahead of Harris in most states. Why do you think it's statistically unlikely? Polls ahead of the election showed downballot Dems were more popular than Harris. Republicans focused most of their negative campaigning on Harris. Biden's very unpopular and she didn't try to distance herself from him (I'm not saying that she should have, I'm just observing that she didn't). Sexists and racists were less likely to vote for Harris.
That's assuming that all Trump supporters vote down ballot. I've been reading that a non-negligable percentage of Trump voters just voted for president and left down ballot races blank. Considering Trump only won the swing states by tiny percentages, a small percentage of Trump voters leaving blank the rest is easily enough to sway it
For instance, if we look at Wisconsin senate, we see that Tammy Baldwin has almost exactly the same number of votes as Harris (only a couple hundred more), but Eric Hovde shows less substantially votes than Trump got
Results with ~99% reported:
Donald Trump: 1,697,769
Kamala Harris: 1,668,082
(And about 40k for third party)
Vs senate
Tammy Baldwin: 1,668,545 [+436 from Harris]
Eric Hovde: 1,641,181 [-56,615 from Trump]