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Realistically... How fucked is the US?
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2024
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Counterpoint (and please, I am literally begging you to talk me off this cliff): Trump didn't know anything about being President the first time. I believe that he thought Presidents could do whatever they wanted. The team he had around him, while you can call them assholes and pieces of shit and every other name in the book, understood how the government and the Presidency worked and were able to reign him in.
All of those people are now gone and he will be surrounded by purely yes-men. He will promote the Generals who will be loyal to him, not the country or the Constitution. Couple that with the newfound Presidential immunity, and Trump has all but free reign to do whatever he wants. He will also appoint judges, like Aileen Cannon, who are loyal to him. Those judges, thanks to the Supreme Court overturning the Chevron deference, will now be the "experts" instead of federal agencies.
I do agree that there probably won't be a sudden shift, but there will be a shift and we will feel it in almost every aspect of our life. He supposedly promised to put RFK Jr in charge of numerous health agencies and campaigned on getting rid of the Department of Education. And I very much recall at least two instances where he said this is the last election you'll have to vote in. Is he going to find/create a way to suspend the 2028 election and stay in power? Who's going to stop him?
It is worse.
Trump started with either incompetent yes men who didn't know how to govern or competent yes men who tried controlling the damage that the President caused.
You now have a group of coordinated people who see Trump as willing to agree with whatever as long as he looks good enough.
On top of what you just mentioned, rather than Trump surrounding himself with incompetent toadies and yes-men, I think a lot of smarter, more powerful, and more dangerous people have taken the last 4 years to worm their way into his ranks.
He's established himself as a useful idiot. During his first 4 years we saw the idiot part glaringly. It was scary and embarrassing, but we scraped by and experienced a few years of relatively boring politics. My big worry is that we'll see the useful part exploited much more effectively this time around.
That's why I said it's possible, I just don't think it's probable. People are loyal to Trump until they're not. Nobody's loyal to him because they like him or they think he's a good guy, or because they think he'll bring the country prosperity. They're loyal because they think they can get something out of it. Most people aren't in a position where they're willing to give up literally everything to help this particular asshole become a dictator. Those that are are typically incompetent - see anything and everything related to stealing the 2020 election. They tried a LOT of things, but nothing came even close to working.
So they'll try again, and I don't think anybody's doubting that. And I don't think our institutions are particularly strong, but they're probably strong enough to stop that kind of incompetence from leading to a dictatorship.