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I'm curious how much of this is from societal things and not just increased diagnoses.
In addition to people giving birth later, how much of that is "learned". Like how many borderline people would have turned out "normal" from being forced to socialize, instead of being able to hide inside online all day.
That's... not how autism works. It's a neurodevelopmental disorder. Autistic nervous systems are literally wired differently than neurotypicals. "Turning out normal" as you call it is masking, which has been shown to be largely harmful for the mental health of autistic people.
Yeah, I know at least 4 of my ancestors should have been diagnosed as Autistic but never got tested. And 2 more were for sure undiagnosed ADHD. They all just ended up being stunted unhappy people instead that had a couple happy moments with their other stunted unhappy friends whenever they would hang out and play trains or music or whatever other "weirdly" deep hobby their sposes had to eventually pull them away from to go back to "normal" life.
There are certain types of things that could be described as masking that people with neurodivergence really need to do anyway. A lot of people on the ASD spectrum have hygiene issues as kids because, for example, they find showering to give them a lot of anxiety. Obviously that needs to be overcome no matter how hard it is to do.
Autism is a spectrum, and an Autism diagnosis is drawing a line in the sand.
That sure sounds like "everyone's a little autistic" which is absolutely not true.
That's not how that works. ASD is one thing; behavior is another. However.
My son is on the spectrum, not diagnosed until his mid teens. He's attended some college so far, and took advantage of a support program at the school for people with an ASD diagnosis. The first year, he was in a dorm specifically built for this program, so over the course of the year, he got a lot of new exposure to "people like him."
Just today he was remarking (again) about how "sheltered" and "coddled" a lot of the other students in this program are. He sees how people respond to situations, and he sees how parents interact with their kids when visiting, moving in/out.
My son is glad to not have had a diagnosis until later on. He recognizes that having gotten some bullying in school - while definitely not desirable, did happen - forced him to be introspective, and forced him to figure out coping mechanisms on his own.
Those are beneficial skills that are well taught by experience, and overprotective parenting (whether the kid is on the spectrum or not) reduces the ability for kids to learn those skills.
And then there’s some of us who just didn’t figure this stuff out on our own at all and somehow “got by.” It has sure made a whole lot of my life pretty fucking miserable though. And finally got diagnosed when I was 45 years old. And now I can access abilities and skills that have been completely walled off for me before by a fog. In my case, it’s ADHD, although I highly suspect I am somewhat autistic as well.
That's what I'm trying to get at. How many people are borderline enough that if they had to figure things out on their own wouldn't get diagnosed as an adult. Like I'm high functioning, but still too far in. But I've met a good number of people older than me that probably are autistic, but have learned to work with it.
Again, that's not how that works. ASD diagnosis is a lengthy process involving multiple days of interviewing. When someone goes undiagnosed until adulthood, but has figured out their own coping mechanisms and strategies, that doesn't mean they aren't on the spectrum anymore. As above, ASD and behavior are two different things.
Have you been diagnosed? If you had, I'd have to think you would already know the above.
Yes, see below.
I'm not arguing that they're not autistic, I don't understand where you're getting. Just that they've learned to "mask" and they think it's normal, and they've gotten to the point that it's not something they're consciously doing. IE I had a speech impediment, I had a counselor work with me to fix it, I spent months consciously thinking about pronouncing it correct, and eventually it became the "normal" thing to do and required no thought. Eye contact has never been something I'm good at, but it no longer burns my soul to look into someones eyes. And if I need to be a good boy it takes almost 0 thought to maintain eye contact. It's now the "normal" thing to do.