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50% survival rate (sh.itjust.works)
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[-] renzev@lemmy.world 101 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

So...

  • normal people are scared because they fall for the gambler's fallacy,
  • mathematician is feeling fine because a 50% chance is a 50% chance,
  • and the scientist is feeling extra fine because the experimental data shows that the surgery is actually safer than 50%

Did I get it right?

[-] DillyDaily@lemmy.world 58 points 1 month ago

Depending on what you're treating, 50% sounds pretty good.

I remember when I went for my last surgery and I was signing all the consent forms, my doctor was emphasising the 17% chance of this known lifelong complication, and the increased 4% chance of general anaesthesia fatality (compared to 1 in 10,000 for general public).

My mum was freaking out because when she had the same surgery she'd been seen much earlier in the disease process, she wasn't expecting such a "high" risk of complications in my care.

But all I was hearing is that there's an over 80% chance it will be a success. Considering how limited and painful my life was by the thing we were treating, it was all no brainier, I liked those odds. Plus my condition is diagnosed 1 in 100,000 people, so how much data could my surgeon really have on the rate of risk, the sample size would be laughable.

Still the best decision of my life, my surgeon rolled his skilled dice, I had zero complications (other than slow wound healing but we expected and prepared for that). I threw my crutches in the trash 2 years later, and ran for the first time in my life at 27 years old after being told at 6 years old that I'd be a full time wheelchair user by 30.

[-] NecroParagon@lemm.ee 13 points 1 month ago

That's awesome. I'm glad everything went so well. Here's to a healthy and long life! Even the idea of going under is terrifying to me. You definitely had some courage with that attitude and that's really admirable.

[-] DillyDaily@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

It helps that I'd had several previous surgeries, so I'd had practice at keeping my cool. Plus my surgeon was in discussion with me for months with multiple consultations to really understand the issue, I don't think I could have possibly been in safer hands.

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this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2024
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