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Nate Silver's election model shows Donald Trump surging (www.newsweek.com)
submitted 2 months ago by Linkerbaan@lemmy.world to c/progressivepolitics@lemmy.world
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Silver's model showed Harris having a better chance of winning the election between August 4 and August 27, although Trump's chances have been on the rise for a week. Last Wednesday, Harris and Trump's forecasts were relatively tied at 50.5 percent to 49.2 percent, respectively.

This week's forecast gives Trump his greatest chance of winning reelection since Silver's model was launched on July 30, when he was given a 61.3 percent chance. At that time, Harris had a 38.1 percent chance of victory.

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[-] Nollij@sopuli.xyz 12 points 2 months ago

This is disinformation. Nate silver has directly called out the use of that screenshot.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no-normal-in-this-election

[-] Linkerbaan@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago

6 upvotes and nobody that read your article.

Including yourself of course.

[-] HomerianSymphony@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

For instance, we’ve seen cases of people using this chart to imply that we have Donald Trump forecasted to win the election by 10 or 11 points. The biggest landslide since Reagan in 1984! But that’s not at all what this chart is saying. Rather, it displays the probability that Trump will win the Electoral College — which is about 55 percent in our forecast, compared to about 45 percent for Harris.

I'm not seeing any disinformation on Linkerbaan's part. Linkerbaan posted the chart with its correct title.

[-] LibertyLizard@slrpnk.net 2 points 2 months ago

That’s not at all what that article says.

this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2024
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