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Harris now ahead of Trump according to NYT polling average
(www.nytimes.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Aug 2024
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This poll tracking is showing Harris barely ahead on national polls. This millennium, Republicans have won the presidency in 2000, 2004, and 2016.
In 2000 and 2016, the Democratic candidate won the popular vote.
Winning the popular vote doesn’t mean shit. The electoral college is what matters.
That same NYT poll link lists 9 tossup states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Nevada, and Virginia.
You’ll notice all but the first three are in alphabetical order. That’s because all but the first three don’t have enough polling to make a prediction. Of those first three: a statistical tie in Wisconsin and Michigan with a Trump lead in Pennsylvania.
If you include Kennedy, Harris is ahead by 1% in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but still tied in Michigan.
National polling trends are going in the direction I want, but they really don’t matter.
I write this from a state whose electoral college votes have never gone for a Democrat in my lifetime and won’t ever before my death. I’ll be voting for Harris, but that vote is one of those national votes that won’t actually help my preferred candidate.
The only way I can help is via monetary donation.
And if you’re a Harris voter in a solidly blue state, your vote means as much fuck all as mine does. Yes, it actually makes it to the electoral college, but, like mine, that’s a forgone conclusion. You should be donating money too and hoping it’s used wisely to affect those swing states.
Abortion protections passed in several red states. If everyone votes, you might catch em sleeping.
exactly. but in spite of it being so soon that there isn't enough data in some of the states, she already deleted quite big gap she had, so hopefully the trend will continue and will bring some results in states where it matters.
That’s my hope. Still from where I live I can only hope my specie contributions are used to affect that.
Popular vote does tend to correlate with swing state results as elections are pretty nationalised these days. It's just too close at the moment to make a prediction either way (and 2016 was too close to call as well, despite the rhetoric at the time).
If she gets to a 10+ national lead I'd start to feel comfortable. Less that that, and it's a tossup (although a smaller margin starts to become significant closer to the election).
Anyway, vote no matter where you live. If nothing else but to build the habit so it becomes something you don't have to think about.