Have distro hopped over the years - most recently Manjaro to Fedora to Endeavour, but haven't found the one that's quite perfect for me.
That said, I'd make a few recommendations based on the person I'd be "marketing" to:

1. New to Linux, looking for polish: Mint
   Mint is built off the well-known Ubuntu, polished a step further. It's in my experience the simplest to use and most generally polished of the Linux offerings. The community generally isn't as catered to power users, but if you care more about your time than about customization, I'd recommend Mint.

2. Looking for Stable/Modern, willing to jump thru a few hoops: Fedora
   Fedora has come a long way over the years. It's far more stable, polished, and accessible than ever before. I'd hazard to call it my top recommendation, BUT, third-party software management and installation can be something of a nightmare. COPR is approximately equivalent to the AUR of Manjaro/Endeavour/Arch below, but at this time very obtuse and difficult to learn or work with. Some day you'll want a package that exists in COPR, and that day won't be fun for you.

3. Need apps you can't find anywhere else: Endeavour/Manjaro
   Forget bleeding-edge packages and rolling release - the Arch User Repository (AUR) is hands-down the greatest feature on offer from Arch-based distros. The AUR is a repository of packages created by users that aren't supported by the main repos. If ever there's a time you need a piece of software and you can't find it anywhere else, the AUR's your best bet.
   That said, I found/find both Manjaro and now Endeavour to be a little rough around the edges, and the consequence of rolling-release and bleeding-edge software is a system that isn't always working just right.

4. Looking to learn, straight into the frying pan: Arch
   Same benefits and drawbacks of Endeavour/Manjaro above, but if you want to set up your system service-by-service, as lean as you want, Arch is there for you. A great experience if you just need an excuse to "try" putting an OS together piece by piece, even if you don't ultimately keep it in the long run.

Desktop Environments
The great DE debate. Nobody can tell you what's right and wrong here, but I have a few general breakdowns of the "big three".
GNOME: If simplicity and elegance is your style. You sacrifice customization potential for cohesion and polish.
KDE: Modern. Powerful. Usually polished out the gate. Can be a bit much if you're trying to tweak it tho. My personal choice.
XFCE: Less modern, more friendly to lower-end systems.

Whelp that's it from me, hope it helps!

Use Ubuntu until you have a first-hand reason why you should use something else.

It's not perfect, but it's still the 800 lb gorilla, and it's what things have the least chance of not working with. It has the most eyes on it and the most immediate solutions when you google a problem.

If you don't like Gnome, then use Kubuntu.

As others have mentioned, Linux Mint is my preferred distro.

knubuntu is awesome if you like/need KDE, but Gnome works well enough for my needs these days.

I installed Linux Mint on a computer for my (computer illiterate) big brother a decade ago and I'm pretty sure he's still running that computer. Just helped a veteran friend who had a 5 year old lenovo laptop dual boot a fresh copy of Linux Mint and he's tickled - it's restored function to his old laptop and it recognized all the hardware to my surprise - even when he tapped the screen and the touch screen responded (I was not expecting that, coming from Linux 10-15 years ago lol).

I'm seriously considering dual-booting to Linux mint myself as my high end Windows10 HP Envy 32-inch AIO PC has always been glitchy from day-one (computer will randomly freeze up once or twice a month with the GPU fan spinning up to high speed for no reason).

I hadn't made the switch because Windows was easier from a productivity standpoint, but that has quickly changed. Windows is trying to inject more advertising while getting more buggy with every update. I'd rather play with a stable version of Linux Mint these days

Of those I think I'd recommend Tumbleweed, it's a great polished distribution with some extra helpful administrative tools (yast for instance). It's rolling but feels as stable as a normal dist to me.

The others are far from bad though! I just have a soft spot for suse and opensuse :)

Ubuntu or pop_os could be nice starting choices as well since they're so big and well supported.

I don't think NixOS is a good option because you'll have to learn a lot more than any other distro. Tumbleweed and EndeavourOS are good , for more graphical tools you could also consider Manjaro and maybe switch to unstable if you want more up-to-date packages, but I am a little biased as you can see.

Those all sound like good distributions to me. Although I would probably scratch NixOS off that list if you don't want to start out with something complex. It is an extremely unique distro which does things very differently than most distros. Which isn't a bad thing, but unless that's specifically what you're looking for, I'd probably choose something more traditional as first distro.

I recommend Fedora. It's rock solid while also having really up-to-date packages coming often. Not bleeding edge but deffo leading edge. Also has a decent amount of info online when you hit an issue.

I used to use Ubuntu but the older packages, and Canonical with their obsession with SNAP and becoming a baby Microsoft kept me away.

Arch is a good option and TONS of information online for help (some of the best) but it is a bit more DIY and is a rolling release so very up-to-date package but keep clear of Manjaro, just do base Arch. The folk managing it keep dropping the ball so not worth the headache

NixOS is a bad choice for a new user. EndeavourOS is okay, but arch-based distros (even ones with nice graphical installers) can get overwhelming for a beginner if an update breaks something and you have to figure out why and fix it, which isn't an irregular occurence for me. Wouldn't recommend tumbleweed for similar reasons.

I think the best mix of easy customizability, beginner-friendliness, and stability are probably offered by fedora and mint, personally.

I vote Fedora

I've tried lots of different ones. Arch is cool if you really wanna set up your system how you like it. But Fedora works well right out of the box and updates don't break the system. Keep in mind.. I'm a Gnome-ist. I think it's the best WM for Linux.

I'm going to suggest one I'm not seeing here; OpenSUSE Tumbleweed. I cut my teeth on Tumbleweed for years, and it has the pros of a rolling release while YaST provides the tools needed to have a stable base that rivals that of Ubuntu. Gaming is extremely easy to get set up, and you can choose pretty much any major desktop, although I recommend XFCE.

NixOS can become quite complex, so maybe stay away from it until you know more about how to manage your system ;)

The other options you've mentioned here are good, but EndeavourOS is based on Arch, so that may be contradictory to what you've said earlier.

As you can see there's lots of excellent choices. Check out distrosea.com if you want to get a feel for different ones without installing. FWIW I prefer Fedora and RPM based distros as I've found their hardware support to be a bit better than Debian based. This is just personal experience though so your's may differ. Please report back on what you ultimately choose.

Kubuntu or KDE Neon (also a 'buntu). I absolutely love KDE, and the Linux desktop experience in general has come a long, loooonnng ways in recent years.

Ubuntu is the common bistro that everyone gets started on. Lots of advanced users continue to use it, because it works well.

Use Ubuntuor Mint or Pop_OS (both of which are modified varieties of Ubuntu). Watch some Youtube videos to compare them. Pop_OS is supposed to be particularly good for gaming, but I'm not sure why

From your post I think you've got enough of a power user inclination to reccommend Arch. Depending on how quickly you need a system up don't be afraid of trying one of it's derivatives such as endeavor, but there's tons of good guides and documentation in the arch eco system that a technically inclined person should definitely be able to swim. From my experience starting with Manjaro (wouldn't reccomend now) and quickly swapping to Arch, it's very doable and a good way to learn how parts of your operating system interact.

If you’re going to go as far as configuring a desktop from scratch with Hyprland, I really recommend considering Arch. Most of the distros you mentioned bring their own desktop environments and all the resources are around using them that way — I wouldn’t want to modify Fedora into an Sddm + Hyprland setup. You’re going to end up on the arch wiki at some point, because that has some of the best help content for this style of computing, so you’d be having an easier time. Arch gives you everything you need to make it yours without learning anything specific to arch (unlike NixOS where you need to learn Linux underlying setup AND a functional language for configuring your system that fights where all your software expects to be). Yeah, you’ll need to make a lot of decisions for installation, but you’ve already made the decision to go with Hyprland for a compositor, and you can keep the internals simple - unencrypted, ext4 file system, systemd-boot - and get to the fun parts.

Alternatively if you just want to get to gaming, Fedora Silverblue and flatpak steam/lutris and you should be golden.

Ubuntu?

One I haven't seen here is Arco Linux. It's designed as a kind of learning path from getting to know basic Linux concepts to being able to install Arch on your own, so I think it's a pretty good early choice, tho probably not that good for the first choice.

General recommendation is that you choose something with good community support or at least good documentation. You might also not want a rolling release, because they tend to be more on the unstable side.

I think if you want something aesthetic you could give Garuda Linux a try/look it's based on Arch linux but not as complex as far as I remember. I used it for a while on my laptop. They also got a suite that should ease gaming.

I have tried Debian, (K)Ubuntu, Fedora, and OpenSUSE Tumbleweed. For myself, I use OSTW, because it supports both x86 and x64 (regarding UEFI and/or CPU) which I need due to my mess of really old and really new devices. Also, YaST (like Windows' Control Panel) is absolutely wonderful when I just want to get something done now and graphically. Also, due to its quick update release cadence, I get the newest updates immediately. It lacks a few important packages despite/due to this though, like WayDroid, so if you use the Windows Subsystem for Android, use Fedora instead.

OSTW also isn't 100% stable. There is the occasional bug. The Fedora KDE Spin, on the other hand, because it by default isn't a rolling release distribution (its release cycle is more like Windows stable, whereas OSTW's is like Windows Insider Dev/Canary) it's amazingly stable. It is very barebones though when compared to OSTW, since it doesn't have any custom distribution-specific features at all, not even YaST, so you'd need to be vaguely more familiar with the commandline unless you can find 3rd-party graphical apps for everuthing you want to do. This is probably possible, but I don't bother since I have YaST.

I'm not going to recommend Debian to you, because until last month, it didn't even come with proprietary drivers by default, and the technically-not-yet-official image with them in is hard to find. It's also very much an LTS distribution. However, it wasn't on your radar anyway.

NixOS is though, and whilst an incredibly stable distribution that's been around for ages and has undoubtedly the best (cross-platform! yes, it works on Windows too) package manager, it needs basic technical skill to configure. I have no idea whether you have that.

Linux Mint is perfect! Avoid Ubuntu, which has a very shady history... Despite Mint being based on Ubuntu/Debian, it doesn't have any spying software. Like Ubuntu used to send all the search queries to Ubuntu when you were searching locally on your system for a file or an image.

I like Fedora, you get the best of many worlds. It is as bleeding edge as a non rolling release distro can be, so you'll get updated versions of hyprland, for example.. Fedora's package manager is super-easy to learn and I would say it is one of those "just works" kind of distro that still allows you to take it wherever you want. If you want it for gaming I would recommend Nobara specifically, because it is a Fedora-based distro tweaked for gaming and maintained by people specialized in that field. I don't like Ubuntu (Snaps suck) or even Linux Mint (Cinnamon is ugly, sorry). I really love Opensuse and it has a ton of things going for it (Yast and their involvement with btrfs and snapper, and mostly chameleons!), but I've got to say Fedora has given me a better experience after using both extensively.

Unless you're really inept to not be able to handle adding a repo, and I'd argue that you'd probably have a much harder time with Linux in general, you are not going to have a problem with Fedora Linux.

Void Linux is what I use and it's by far my favourite, can't recommend it enough. It's rolling release while also being very stable, has a small but very engaged and welcoming community.

I was in a similar situation; I was a windows power user and I jumped straight into nixos. I do not recommend it for someone completely new to linux.

Having to deal with new concepts and confusing terminology like window/display/login managers, a new file system, bash, desktop environments, etc., and then having to learn nix (my first dive into a functional language), nixpkgs, NixOS, AND all the noise surrounding flakes was incredibly frustrating. After a week I gave up and jumped ship.

I played around with void linux for a bit (followed jake@linux's playlist on YT, it's a fantastic guide), had a blast ricing my desktop, got comfortable running without a desktop environment, then went back to nix a month later. By that point I was familiar enough with linux and just had to learn the nix ecosystem (still difficult, but bearable).

Things started to click, especially once I had read the nix pills in its entirety. Now with my entire system configured with flakes I just can't see myself ever going back :>

I never tried the beginner friendly distros like mint or ubuntu so I can't comment on them, but I was really happy with void. Yes it's doesn't hold your hand, but it very quickly taught me a lot about how everything fits together. I'm sure arch provides a similar experience.