War Economies are weird. The only reason why the numbers are that high is because of all the military spending. Transitioning to peace time will cause russian economic collapse.

War economies usually crash when trying to return to normalcy. That's why Putin doesn't want peace at reasonable terms: Because if he doesn't have a total and complete victory, it's going to be hard to distract from the complete and total collapse. The longer this goes on, the worse the fall will be, but he doesn't have much of a choice.

This is (one of the reasons) why I hope sanctions remain in place even after a peace deal - Because there will be one obvious person that can be thrown under the bus, and I'm sure most russians secretly want to see the main defenestrator defenestrated.

Russia's economy is experiencing a sharp slowdown in growth, according to a report released by the governmental statistics agency Rosstat on May 16.

Sharp slowdown according to governmental statistics agency
And we know they sugarcoat the numbers in every way they can! Imagine how bad it really is!

Compared to last quarter, the economy has already contracted 0.4%

I've already estimated here that the real GDP excluding military has probably shrunk by about 10 maybe even 15% in 2024, and it's still dropping! Rough times are here for Russia.

Fuckem.

Tja

As it turn out sanctions do have an affect, but it just takes time

Good! They've earned it.

Inflation, devaluation, reduced incomes: Russia’s economy in an era of falling oil prices - [April 2025]

Russia’s oil and gas revenues have already fallen by 10% — and that may be just the beginning. Oil prices are sliding amid fears of a global economic slowdown triggered by the US-China tariff war, along with rising production from OPEC+ countries. Goldman Sachs warns that in a worst-case scenario, oil could plunge to $40 a barrel by 2026. Even the bank’s more moderate forecast isn’t much better: $55 a barrel. For Russia, that could mean: at best; another round of inflation and ruble devaluation; and at worst, a banking crisis and industrial shock.

In response to the decline in oil revenues, the authorities may also choose to cut spending. The Russian government has its own unique methods for doing this, as Mikhaylova points out: shifting the state’s responsibilities onto businesses. “This is already happening. For example, large enterprises — whether state-owned, municipal, or private — are being forced to hire those who are going to war as mercenaries, paying them salaries from company funds,” [one expert] explains. If budget revenues continue to fall, this will likely become more common.

According to [another expert], all of these measures lead to inflation, and if oil prices stay low for an extended period, Russia will face a real crisis: “It’s unlikely we’ll see empty store shelves like in the late Soviet Union, or widespread wage non-payments like in the early '90s. Since the government prints money and the macroeconomic team is fairly pragmatic, we’re more likely to follow in the footsteps of Argentina and Turkey — maintaining a market economy, but one that’s growing increasingly poorer.”