It's amazing this argument still gets trotted out, but in a way kinda not because it serves a purpose. It's an excuse to do nothing, or if we're being charitable a coping mechanism, to avoid confronting the reality of a very bleak future if we don't act.
I think Rod's point lands particulary well because it balances the urgency of the crisis with a bit of hope that small countries can act and can make a difference.
wow that was actually a mic-drop moment.
Amazingly clear explanation. If you still think we're too small to matter after watching that you probably were never going to be convinced
That's a fantastic post!
Great post. Thanks for sharing. Hopefully it changes something.
"we are one of the richest nations in the world"
It doesn't feel like that to me.
If climate change is real, and it's caused by cow farts and 1300cc cars being driven 3 times a week, how come the government won't build affordable apartments, that way we can make better use of walking, cycling and public transport? I own a bike but I can't ride it, because my landlord doesn't let me store it anywhere. If I want a place that has a shed, I'll have to pay an extra $150 a week or more.
It's incredibly stupid that some countries will ban petrol cars by 2030, when Mazda 2 and Toyota Corolla use almost no fuel. I don't drive very often so I re-fuel every 3-4 weeks LOL
Where will the farmers work instead, if dairy farms are shut down by the government? Will farmers move into the city, live in a prison-size bedroom, in a boarding house with a dozen indians, and stack shelves at Countdown at 3am? Somehow I don't think the dairy farmers will like that.
The climate change agenda is supposed to get us cycling and catching the bus more, and living in higher density apartments, near to our workplace. But when was the last time anyone saw an apartment go up in Christchurch? Only in the CBD or nearby areas. If I live anywhere else, I must drive a 10 year old ICE car, because landlords don't provide a garage for an EV, and employers expect me to have reliable transport. I suppose I should just buy an EV that costs 3x more than a regular car, and then pay one of the other tenants to have the cable hang out of their window to reach my car? Fat chance.
How about we start local manufacturing and stop importing from China? What about a restriction on how many migrant workers can fly here on a co2 emitting plane? We could cut international flights by 20% and half the amount of work and study visas being approved. That's another way to cut our carbon emissions. Stop globalisation, stop having so many flights and stop the import of foreign products. At least reduce it.
Climate change policy just means we'll have more poverty, less taxes being paid and a worse society over-all. We won't get the utopia that the greens are promising. Show me 6 storey apartments on Riccarton Road, that have EV charge parks at no additional cost, and bike storage at no additional cost (must have power, lighting and protection from rain at all angles so my bike chain doesn't rust). If they can't do this, then I'm against "climate action" because it's a threat to my meagre existence. I live just above the poverty line and people like Rod Carr obviously have millions of dollars, so they don't even know what it's like to be part of the working poor.
Did I miss this copypasta? I've never seen so many straw man arguments presented at once
What makes you think we can manufacture everything or even most things we need let alone more efficiently than china?
You realise that we don't have the natural resources to manufacture shit right? That all the raw materials and fuel will need to be imported.
Measuring climate change impact per captia is a ccp talking point and I cringe every time I see it mentioned. Population size does not give you the right to pollute more. The biggest polluters need to make changes immediately.
If you want to reduce our per captia carbon emissions bring another 5million people into the country. The value our farmers bring to the world far offsets the carbon output. We should do our best to reduce emissions where possible but forcing reduction in output does more harm than good.
Exactly what value do NZ farmers bring to the world?
If you are talking Dairy, most of their production is exported and consumed as luxury food - if it disappeared tomorrow, the world would not suffer!? (~3 percent of the world's milk solids) Dairy is one of the most inefficient ways to produce "food". We could do much better producing plant based food for export.
Considering the damage to our waterways, the environment in general, and Climate Change - there is NO value in that.
Per Capita is the correct measure to use in my, and many others' opinion - there is no other fairer way to attribute the effects.
Bringing in another 5 million people into the country would see our Carbon Emissions rise... Removing a good portion of 5 million dairy cows would see a rapid and significant reduction!
Population size does not give you the right to pollute more.
I don't think that's the point he's making. He's just saying NZ may be a small percentage of emissions, but proportionally we emit more than our fair share.
The biggest polluters need to make changes immediately.
Partly true. Everyone needs to make changes immediately. Big or small. Remember that a large portion of China's emissions are from products exported to the West. That doesn't get China off the hook, but it also means Western countries (including NZ) have to accept their responsibility in those emissions.
The value our farmers bring to the world far offsets the carbon output.
Source?
We should do our best to reduce emissions where possible but forcing reduction in output does more harm than good
Not exactly sure what you mean by "forcing reduction in output", but if you mean consuming less, then yes we will need to do that. Climate change will not be fixed with tinkering around the edges. It needs transformational action.
Not exactly sure what you mean by “forcing reduction in output”, but if you mean consuming less, then yes we will need to do that. Climate change will not be fixed with tinkering around the edges. It needs transformational action.
I've been waiting 6 years for transformational action from Labour, I still can't get a good rental property for a fair price. No bike shed, constant changes to car parking arrangements with other tenants, just a disaster. They talk about climate change but they don't seem to believe in it. Where is the dense housing, where is the walkable city? I still need a car to get to the laundromat.
Population size does not give you the right to pollute more
Exactly. The fact that there are only five million people within our national boundaries doesn't mean we should just be able to pollute more.
If that's the case, any group of 5 million people can say they're only zero point whatever percent of emissions so they shouldn't have to do anything.
All that achieves is everyone pointing at everyone else being the problem and nothing gets done. The planet burns and the oceans boil
Well yes.
More than that it's too late now to do anything anyway. We are not going to be able to prevent catastrophic climate change and there is a very real chance we are going to go through a world wide age of suffering and pain for most humans on this planet towards the end of my life span. Luckily I will be dead by the time civilisation collapses but chances are nobody will be able to take care of me in my old age and my end is not going to be pleasant.
This is false. While we can't avoid climate change completely (it's happening now), we can still limit the damage. Every 0.1 degree matters. This kind of doomerism is a form of denial.
I disagree. I don't think .1 degree matters and I don't think there is anything we can do to cool the earth by .1 degree or even prevent another .1 degree rise.
It's truly too late. Even we got to carbon zero tomorrow the carbon in the atmosphere right now is going to have devastating impact for years to come.
Our only hope is that we somehow missed a feedback mechanism and it kicks in.
I disagree.
It's not a matter of opinion, it's a matter of science. Have a look at the IPCC reports, or read articles from legitimate sources, like:https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/04/recent-readings-on-climate-doomerism-and-science/
The science is clear on what the causes are (almost all of which are well within our control to mitigate), and on the differences between 2C and 3.5+C. The latter will be far far worse than the former, and there's absolutely no technical or economic reason why 2C (or lower) is not achievable.
The IPCC has been drastically underestimating the rates and magnitude of climate change in all of their forecasts. It’s clear they are putting politics and PR above science in order not to panic the population.
I just don’t trust them to represent the actual science in the matter.
If you don't trust climate scientists to represent the actual climate science, then I don't know what to tell you.
This has nothing to do with trust. They put out forecasts and we know with 100% certainty that all of their forecasts underestimated how much warming there was going to be and how fast.
Why would you give them your blind trust after such a performance?
Do you really believe they were wrong in all of their previous forecasts but now they are right?
And to counter your disgusting accusation that I am anti science:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. It's not "the climate scientists". It's a political body and it's obvious that it's white washing what their scientists are telling them and bowing to political pressure.
So fuck off with your insult and calling me a science denier.
The IPCC is a body made up of some of the top climate scientists from around the world. They work to summarise the latest climate science over the last few years. So it is definitely a scientific body.
Where is the scientific evidence that says it's too late and there's nothing we can do?
Where is the scientific evidence that says it’s too late and there’s nothing we can do?
The collection of studies which show that all the predictions of the IPCC so far have underestimated both the magnitude and the velocity of climate change.
You're right that the IPCC has tended to be conservative in it's estimates (I.e. that warming / effects have generally progressed faster than predicted).
But it's a huge jump from "things are worse than we thought" to "things are hopeless, there's nothing we can do". The science explicitly contradicts the latter. If we bring emissions down to near zero by around 2050, things will be way better than they could be. No serious climate scientist would argue against that. We also have most of the technology to achieve that without completely crashing the economy too.
But it’s a huge jump from “things are worse than we thought” to “things are hopeless, there’s nothing we can do”.
It's not a huge jump.
Have you seen this?
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/01/ocean-temperature-spike-climate
If we bring emissions down to near zero by around 2050, things will be way better than they could be.
What makes you think that's even possible. There has not been one year in the entire history of mankind where global carbon emissions were less than the previous year. How do you think we will get to zero.
Have you seen this?
Yes... climate change is happening, things are going to heat up, weather extremes are going to get worse. There is no way to stop that happening completely.... but I suggest you should think about leaping to extremes... just because things are bad (or worse than we thought) does not mean hopelessness is justified. If you go to hospital with a broken arm and they do some tests and say "looks like you've also got diabetes", you don't instantly give up on life because things are bad. With climate change, things are bad, but not hopeless. Again, read what the scientists are saying... very few (if any) legitimate scientists are saying we are 100% doomed and shouldn't even try to fix this.
What makes you think that’s even possible. There has not been one year in the entire history of mankind where global carbon emissions were less than the previous year. How do you think we will get to zero.
First, that parts not true. Emissions in 2020 dropped around 7%. It was largely due to COVID lockdowns, but still shows it's possible.
We have a pretty clear scientific and technical plan to limit climate change by reducing emissions. I'm not saying it will be easy or that it will definitely even work. But there's absolutely no reason at this point in time to think it's impossible. "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take". Going back to the medical analogy, if someone says you can have an operation that will give you a 50% chance of survival, but if you don't have it, you've got 100% change of dying, what would you do?
And what makes you think that because something has never been done before it can't be done now? People said we'd never abolish slavery or go to the moon.... Every new thing humanity has done had never been done before at one point.
It's also worth thinking about who a "doomerism"/"hopelessness" mindset serves? If it's completely hopeless, then there's no point doing anything. The people with the money (e.g. fossil fuel giants) would absolutely love for us to do nothing, because they'll be able to keep raking it in. And they can (or think they can) use that money to avoid the catastrophic shit that is coming. For them, hopelessness is as good as climate denial. And you can bet they are trying to foster that as much as they can with disinformation campaigns.
First, that parts not true. Emissions in 2020 dropped around 7%. It was largely due to COVID lockdowns, but still shows it’s possible.
Did the global emissions drop or did the rate of increase drop?
And what makes you think that because something has never been done before it can’t be done now?
Because the mechanisms that caused the problem are still in place and you aren't going to upend capitalism anytime soon.
he people with the money (e.g. fossil fuel giants) would absolutely love for us to do nothing, because they’ll be able to keep raking it in.
No they want you to do stuff and take responsibility so they don't have to. There is a reason you think the burden is on you and me instead of the corporations and the governments.
Did the global emissions drop or did the rate of increase drop?
Absolute global emissions dropped 7%, see: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region?time=2010..latest
(If you expand out the date range, you'll also see there are other years where there were drops).
Because the mechanisms that caused the problem are still in place and you aren’t going to upend capitalism anytime soon.
I am glad for you that you can be 100% confident about what will happen in the future!
No they want you to do stuff and take responsibility so they don’t have to. There is a reason you think the burden is on you and me instead of the corporations and the governments.
This is quite different from what we've been talking about so far. We've been discussing whether society as a whole can do anything about climate change, and you've been arguing that there's absolutely nothing we can do.
There's a separate discussion about who or what is responsible and/or needs to make changes. All our say about that is that it will be everyone who needs to make changes.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region?time=2010..latest
Here, I zoomed the chart out a bit so you can get the real picture
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region?time=1980..latest
I am glad for you that you can be 100% confident about what will happen in the future!
Yes I am 100% confident that we will not upend capitalism just like you are 100% confident the world will not emit any CO2 by 2050.
We’ve been discussing whether society as a whole can do anything about climate change, and you’ve been arguing that there’s absolutely nothing we can do.
You can do whatever you want. It won't undo the damage and it won't help.
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