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US not afraid of escalation from Russia over events in Kursk Oblast
(www.pravda.com.ua)
It’s important to understand Russia’s current economic situation. The sanctions have been brutal, but China has managed to keep them afloat. A significant (nuclear) escalation would turn China against Putin immediately.
China’s economy is also in a precarious position right now. Their massive housing bubble is in the process of bursting. Xi will not tolerate instability on that scale.
Why would China turn against Putin for them using their nukes? I don't keep up much on their relations.
China needs exports to Europe and the US. A nuclear war is not good for anyone
For one, because they gave Ukraine guarantees to that effect. You might also have noticed that Russia threatened the west plenty with nukes, but not Ukraine.
Noone really knows what the exact Chinese policy is there they like their strategic ambiguity but one thing's for sure they are really big on non-proliferation, and thus aren't exactly fans of nuclear blackmail.
I don't think the Chinese would be triggered by Russia nuking its own territory, but then, well, Russia would be nuking its own territory. They could nuke Sudja to get rid of the incursion but they'd be nuking their own defence. Also, their own city. If they withdraw their defence first, Ukraine would gain even more territory and they'd have to nuke even more. Or, differently put: Just because the term "tactical nuke" exists doesn't mean that nukes are sensible tactical weapons.
An exchange of nuclear weapons would be expected to ignite many fires and to spread dust and fallout into the atmosphere - similar to a large scale bush fire, volcanic eruption or a meteorite hit, depending on the size and number of weapons. This would have a chilling and darkening effect on the climate, causing crop failures worldwide. A world-wide nuclear winter effect would impact everyone, not just the parties to the conflict.
That's why, for all the posturing and sabre rattling, even the most belligerent states don't want a nuclear war - it means destruction of all sides, and massive casualties around the world.
There's a big chance the West doesn't just retaliates against Russia but at the same time launches to China and North Korea, so it's in everyone's best interest to not launch any nukes. You can imagine China getting a bit antsy every time Putin talks nukes in such a scenario.
Russia using a nuke and the West then retaliating against a couple of countries is too stupid even for a Seagal movie. How did you get this idea?
You might say that the China housing bubble has already popped. I haven't kept up over the last few weeks, but prices were plummeting weeks ago, and volume was massive.
What escalation? They've thrown everything they have at Ukraine already.
Not everything,
Yeah, that's the elephant in the room. Also, am I crazy or is getting Ukraine nuclear missiles the answer to this artificial power imbalance...? Like, I know no NATO country can just pack and ship Ukraine nukes, but... If we provide them aid to defend their country and they saw fit to somehow purchase nuclear warheads and put them on their missiles... Wouldn't that be a good thing?
They're now a stable, mature, corruption-free country. If they publicly and loudly announced: "We now have nuclear missiles, and they're aimed at Moscow and the homes of everyone in the Kremlin, deal with it."
I'm definitely not one for nuclear proliferation, but that would get rid of Russia's "trump" card and might be the only way they back down...
You do know that Ukraine willingly dismantled its nuclear arsenal? And I would hardly call their country corruption-free, but that's a different topic altogether. I think this is why it is so important for NATO to be the backbone of the Ukrainian defense efforts, as they were the voices encouraging them to rid themselves of nuclear weapons.
Ukraine willingly dismantled its nuclear arsenal
In exchange for assurances that Russia wouldn't invade them. They won't make that mistake again. And it's not just me, NATO and organizations around the world have vouched for Ukraine's continuing efforts to root out and remove corruption.
There is the issue that at the time, Ukraine had absolutely no ability to actually pay to maintain a nuclear arsenal. Getting security agreements instead was a sensible thing to do, it just turns out that the ones they got weren't strong enough
Ukraine had absolutely no ability to actually pay to maintain a nuclear arsenal.
And Russia does? At least they'd have the "what if one of them still works" card that the Russians are playing.
Russia's GDP and GDP per capita have both been a lot higher than Ukraine's in the entire post-Soviet period. Usually about two to three times higher per capita and five to ten times bigger overall. Post-Soviet Russia hasn't been particularly prosperous, but it has a large population and oil money. It was definitely much more able to pay for it than Ukraine.
All I'm saying is that if they kept some, they could maintain some ambiguity whether they were maintaining them or not, potentially deterring the current invasion. It's not like Russia has money to spare either, we're taking them at their word that they have a functioning nuclear arsenal.
With how the current invasion is going, I doubt that they know for certain. But let's be honest, that uncertainty is the only thing keeping US F-22s out of Moscow's skies right now.
I agree it would have been better for them with the benefit of hindsight. My point is more that the decision that they did make was a pretty rational one at the time
Yeah, I get that and I agree. Everyone thought Russia will do what's good for Russia, and not this.
Theoretically yes, although that would mean less yachts for oligarchs, so maybe some maintenance might be neglected or skipped
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Not only got rid of their nukes, but in agreement with Russia that that their territory would be respected.
The nukes were their protection from Russia, and Russia stabbed them in the back after they got rid of them. Russia used the "NATO expansion" excuse, among others, as a reason to invade when it was Europe who worked to de-nuke Ukraine in the first place.
Its only a special military operation. Why would they need to escalate?
I just hope Ukraine knows what it is doing, as it's calling the bluff of a nuclear power. I don't think Russia will nuke with anything big, but they might give the go ahead for small scale tactical nukes. Then again, Russia was already training for their use, so nothing lost and this means that if they use them, they might have to use it within their own territory and assume those repercussions. Best case, corruption has already disarmed any possibility of using them.
If Russia uses nukes and fallout spreads to Europe, NATO might get involved.
Nato and the west is gonna stand in the corner with its tail between its legs. They have allowed russia into Ukraine by not reacting in 2014.
I dunno, they ignored Crimea because it didn't impact them. Nuclear fallout sprinkling all over Europe impacts Europe. It also shows Putin is way too reckless to tolerate as a neighbor. If he nukes so much as a cornfield, one of those sword missiles is gonna shred him mid meeting at his long ass table in the middle of the Kremlin.
My gut says they've been searching for any nuke that will actually work after decades of Russian maintenance
Yeah, the West appears to be quiet as well. They are pleased with the results. It seems that if Ukraine had told their Western counterparts what they were planning beforehand, they'd be dissuaded. Further threats from Putin might be taken seriously by the West and not call the bluff.
But since the offensive into Kursk was successful and Kremlin is panicking at the moment, the West appears to be satisfied well enough to continue with further incursions. This, in itself, is calling Putin's bluff about escalation.
It seems that if Ukraine had told their Western counterparts what they were planning beforehand, they'd be dissuaded.
"It's easier to ask forgiveness than it is to get permission."
If their nukes are in as good a condition as their trucks were in 2022 we don't have much to worry about.
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https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/9/7469629/
What is with this place it kind of seems they have been fighting over it for the length of the war?
Oblast just means "territory" or similar. Which is why you see it appended onto a lot of the names of places the fighting is taking place in.
Russia wants what Ukraine's got, including control over parts of the Black Sea. These are the areas at the border. It seems like they've been fighting over the same parts because they have. Russia hasn't been able to take and hold much if any ground.
Sabrina Singh looks cute af, why tf she working for a building full of killers, called The Pentagon, when she could be doing better things for society?
You should try and get of the house and touch some grass.
Don't put the grass in danger of his micropenis.
No dude, my penis is smaller than micro, it's essentially molecular.
It's worse, your penis is antimatter.
Fucking weird comment.
Why?
You’re commenting like a creeper on her looks and claiming she works for killers on a thread about a Democratic country fighting for its life against a dictatorial oppressor. The definition of fucking weird.
Yeah you're right, that's pretty weird of me.
Do you spend a lot of time on the Chans?
Nah, bro. I've never been to Asia.
this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2024
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