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this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2024
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A Boring Dystopia
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1: The Sahm recession indicator triggered in July. Now both this and the Kantro indicator are signaling that a recession already started. Both have a near perfect record since 1970.
2: How the ‘strong’ US economy feels for poorer Americans, in five charts
3:
It was triggered today… and has had only two false positives since 1959.
What most people don’t know is that the economist who coined the term, Claudia Sahm, proposed this rule as a way to warn governments to allow them to preemptively send out stimulus to their population lol.
The Sahm rule originates from a chapter in the Brookings Institution's report on the use of fiscal policy to stabilize the economy during recessions.
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule#cite_note-2)The chapter, written by Sahm, proposes fiscal policy to automatically send stabilizing payments to citizens to boost economic well-being. Instead of relying on human intuition to determine when such payments should be sent, Sahm outlines a condition to trigger the payments.
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule#cite_note-:1-3) The trigger suggested indicates an economy beginning a recession and is now known as the Sahm rule. The Sahm rule recession indicator was also featured early in a Goldman Sachs U.S. economic research report by economist William C. Dudley with a recommended trigger of 0.33%
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_Rule#cite_note-4) (the nowadays more commonly used rule triggers a recession signal when the Sahm metric is crossing above 0.5%).