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this post was submitted on 02 Jul 2023
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No Stupid Questions
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Others have basically captured it, but my read is a massive change in the overall risk profile held by venture capital firms. The time of reckoning has come, and it’s time for everyone’s (or at least VCs’) favourite three letters: ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue).
The last twenty years, we’ve seen this sort of spray-and-pray model, where 99 bad investments could be offset by 1 “unicorn”. The risk appetite seems to have shifted largely because 1.) there’s a higher volume of early stage concepts (so there’s more bad ideas), and 2.) there’s either fewer unicorns, or the unicorns that mature are ultimately less valuable.
Crunchbase put out a good analysis of the current trend of global venture dollar flow:
The Party’s Still Over: The VC Downturn In 6 Charts
You can read news from various outlets - some say it’s a post-pandemic correction. Some say it’s because labour is too expensive. But the bottom line is that VCs aren’t willing to spend money on “users-in-lieu-of-revenue” like they once were, and I honestly don’t blame them. There were a lot of really, egregiously stupid ideas coming out of SV, and their wax wings melted. sad_trombone.mp4
Adam Kotsko summed this entire phenomena up nicely:
I think you really hit the nail on the head.
Crudely it can be summarised as a change from investors throwing money at tech in the hope of buying a share of future profits to wanting to see those profits. That means business models have to now actually deliver and a lot of then just don't - twitter, reddit, Gfycat - they're all part of the same phenomenon. Big revenues is meaningless without profit. While they may have value to the users, it seems the advertising funded models and data harvesting models just don't deliver profit for these kinds of services.
So they desperately try to adjust the models to maximise income and reduce cost. Enshittification ensues.
Great explanation. The days of the "web 2.0" fantasy dream are officially over, investors needed their money back at a certain point and that point is now.