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Yo fuck tankies
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 25 Nov 2023
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Even if they managed to recover all chip factories after a full scale invasion (which the Taiwanese could easily sabotage), the production is based on a lot of western technology, which they couldn't replicate for decades. So the factories would be of little use.
Chinas economy is also very reliant on exports to western countries (US, Japan, Europe), if they invaded Taiwan that would plunge the world economy into the worst crisis ever seen that would hit China especially hard. They're already struggling with serious demographic and other economic issues that will put them into a difficult spot in the next decades. Invading Taiwan would be very, very terrible for basically everyone, and suicide for the CCP.
I agree with you, but I also thought that about Ukraine, so who knows
Til
It wouldn't be suicide unless they are stupid or incompetent, as most of the world won't respond with violence. Trump probably wouldn't respond militarily, but Biden plans on it. The dumbest thing China could do is attack the US first, or too directly, as most of the world won't offer military support otherwise. Pacific Asian countries won't proactively get involved, but will aid the US to protect against China. If China only shoots Americans that directly attack them, they'll be able to paint the US as the aggressor who's meddling in an internal conflict. If they attack military bases or ships enforcing a blockade too directly, the US will be galvanized, and if they attack first to cripple the US's ability to blockade fuel imports, the world will be galvanized and WWIII becomes likely.
China's best strategy against Biden's America is to totally forgo maintaining any chip technology whatsoever, taking Taiwan as quickly as possible with no regard for collateral damage. If they don't succeed within a month, the mainland will suffer dearly, and if they piss off the American public too much, they'll face constant hostility from the largest military on earth.
Biden will be motivated to maintain pressure, while Trump won't want to waste American resources unless China attacks unprovoked for some dumb reason. Trump will do stupid shit like trying to invade Mexico and putting tariffs on all imports, but he's less likely to fight China if they don't provoke him. However, Trump is still risky, as if he gets personally upset at China, he'll escalate dangerously just to show strength. China will be motivated to limit collateral damage and take Taiwan more slowly, so Trump doesn't get as mad about the economic hit from invading. Ironically, China now wants Trump in office and Biden out, while it was almost the reverse in 2020.
I'd be surprised if any country responded militarily. It's not in the interest of anyone to risk WW3 over Taiwan, and China knows this. In contrast to Russia, they are probably competent enough to take Taiwan in a day or two before anyone can send significant aid.
There would be massive economic implications though. The most effective deterrence that western countries have are sanctions, and they can't let China invade without consequences to keep the deterrence effective (also for other countries), so they'd have to be used. Investment in China would probably be banned for decades to reduce reliance.
If hundreds of millions of Chinese fall back into poverty due to the invasion, that would be a serious threat for political stability in China.
That's why Biden would respond with force. He needs to make good on the deterrence, but will avoid escalating too far.