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(lemmy.dbzer0.com)
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~Icon~ ~by~ ~@Double_A@discuss.tchncs.de~
I'll abstract the problem a tiny bit:
So the output table for all your choices would be:
Alternative 4 supersedes 1 and 2, so the only real choice is between 3 (pick B) or 4 (pick A+B).
You should pick A+B if a + nka > (1-p)ka. This is a bit messy, so let's say that the odds of a false positive are the same as the odds of a false negative; that is, n=p. So we can simplify the inequation into
In OP's example, k=1000, so n > (1000-1)/(2*1000) โ n > 999/2000 โ n > 49.95%.
So you should always pick B. And additionally, pick A if the odds that the machine is wrong are higher than 49.95%; otherwise just B.
Note that 49.95% is really close to 50% (a coin toss), so we're actually dealing with a machine that can actually predict the future somewhat reliably, n should be way lower, so you're probably better off picking B and ignoring A.
Damn dude.