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this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2023
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Technically... this war was "kind of instigated" by the EU out-bidding Russia in 2013 for the investment in a commercial agreement with Ukraine. Everybody at the time knew that Russia had to keep Ukraine under its boot or risk getting fucked long term in the Black Sea, so buying-out Ukraine's allegiance was sort of like poking a bear... and the bear reacted pretty much as expected, by instantly invading Crimea... which also worked as expected to fortify Ukraine's allegiance towards the West... which ultimately lead to Russia launching its "special military operation"... which everyone kind of expected to end in a couple days with the loss of Kyiv... but instead turned out to spectacularly show off Russia's hand and military weakness, allowing for a proxy war to begin.
The instigation was very tactful, playing the long game over 10 years, but it was there. Which is also expected when trying to start a proxy war against a nuclear power; even this low-key instigation, already got Russian crazies clamoring for nuclear retaliation, even when the war was obviously their own fail.
The EU agreement included higher investments than the Russian one (aka: EU outbid Russia)... that's why, when Yanukovych (expectedly, as a Russian puppet) switched to the Russian one, the ordinary Ukrainians got... well, kind of pretty pissed.
Russia didn't outbid the EU, they puppeteered Ukraine away from the EU agreement, precisely because they could not outbid it.
The rest worked as expected.
Not how wars work. They're like domino chains, if you know which one to push, you get the desired result.
In this case:
Do you need me to look up sources for the remaining dominos? (I'm on mobile, so I'd rather not)
Bitch please, Russia and EU have a much longer history.
The real "first domino" is somewhere during the Roman empire or even before.
But the invasion domino is a much bigger threat than the dominoes before.
Putin could just have decided NOT to invade. He had that power. Yet he pushed the domino anyway.
Putin could have tried to clean up shop in Russia around 2000-2008, he had that power back then. By instead trying to become a new Tsar, he set up himself to either invade over and over, or get killed.
It's no coincidence the same year 2012 he got "reelected", is when the EU started to sweet talk Ukraine; by then, the large dominoes were all set up, just needed that tiny first push.
By 2014, and 2022, any negative to invade would have him windowed.
Wasn't Russia expecting Ukraine to capitulate (basically, like what Armenia did against Azerbaijan)?
They only sent, what, 80000 troops on the initial drive to Kyiv?
There is that... then there is this:
It's failure after failure after failure after failure... and it keeps going, a full clown show. There are actually some more that aren't in the video.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://youtu.be/D_Jizt8AAa4
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.
If Ukraine wanted to join Russia, they wouldn't need to send any troops.
So that is about 79999 troops too many.