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this post was submitted on 27 Sep 2023
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Today I Learned
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The Federal Reserve has mandate to ensure employment doesn't get too high, which is high enough to cause inflation. By increasing interest rates, unemployment increases because it costs more to pay people.
Wages rose when unemployment was low because inflation was running away. The Fed was behind on its mandate shortly after the pandemic. Because interest rates were low, it was relatively inexpensive to hire people, and that's what businesses did, especially after firing so many of them during the pandemic. But, ya know, the pandemic gave people more time to consider what was important to them...and working was pretty low on that list. Thanks to the low interest rates, businesses could pay them more as an incentive to come back to work. That whole "Great Resignation" thing was about workers finally having some bargaining power. And wages rose because workers could demand more.
But now interest rates are having some pressure on inflation. It costs more to hire people, and it costs more to keep people hired. The bargaining power workers had is basically gone. The demand for employees to literally come back into work and stop working from home is evidence that business managers have regained the upper hand. And so, now there's no reason to pay people more. Just threaten to fire them and watch them dance.
So, basically, the need for a minimum wage is because there is no incentive to raise wages themselves but there's every incentive to lower them. And the Fed has other methods of dealing with low unemployment that will kick in before businesses start raising wages to attract workers in most cases. The post-pandemic era was "unprecedented", after all.
What would be a fair way to manage wages without the need for unemployment?
We don't need unemployment as it is. Stephanie Kelton makes the case here (pdf). Here's an AI summary of how wages are managed without the need for unemployment using a public service employment (PSE) program:
It should be insulting to Americans the country over that one of our main economic institutions has determined that people must be unemployed for economic growth. Unemployment has so many socio-economic problems it's insane, and it leads to physical and psychological problems, and even ultimately to suicide. Why would we want this, and why should it continue to be implemented, if an alternative exist that better manages wages and doesn't need call for unemployment?
This sounds reasonable. Too bad that the post lost focus. I would love to know what others think about this.
Why are you so against a minimum wage when people keep telling you why it’s important?
Because I am not convinced by their arguments. It makes sense if you accept a minimum of unemployed people. But why should society settle for that? Employ everybody and find another way to prevent wages from rising too high.
But the workers don’t currently have either- lowering or removing the minimum wage might reduce the unemployment rate, but those jobs are not going to be paid at a livable rate. Currently more theft is wage theft committed by companies against workers, they’re already using the power they have against workers. There’s already a clear divide between union and nonunion blue collar benefits and wages: if there were a textbook play of economic principles, all nonunion blue collar employees would quit and join union companies or form their own.
Having neither, it's the same as the saying about liberty and security. If you don't seek employment for all then you won't get minimum wage.
Let the people decide what a livable wage is. A bad job is better than no job. They can still refuse to work.
Of course, without new ideas, things don't change. Not the workers but the companies need a reason for full employment.
The people have a gun to their head. If they’re not eligible for unemployment because a $3/hour job is available, they’ll take it not to starve to death. That doesn’t make it a free or advantageous choice.