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this post was submitted on 06 Jun 2023
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Doubt on both, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is somewhat mirage with even UA sources being unsure if it actually did happened, and Russian forces are afaik not currently making any moves. Also it will made it actually easier to cross in a short while. Finally, there's the issue of water for Crimea, it's strategic objective.
Or it might be actual acident caused by 30 years of bad maintenance.