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this post was submitted on 25 Aug 2023
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We’re inching closer to nuclear attacks. I don’t think Putin will allow Crimea to fall without it. Someone please tell me I’m wrong and why?
This has been a worry of mine from the moment Ukraine took back the airport and other countries began aid.
I knew this day was coming, just thought it’d be quicker.
The moment putin tries to do nuclear attack, he's dead. Zelensky said it well, that putin spent most of the invasion in some bunker, before that he had this thing with ridiculously long tables being super paranoid about covid. He's clearly not planning to die.
Also I think it helps to imagine the details. How would the nuclear attack look like? How would it prevent Crimea "falling"? What would be the breaking point? It's not like there would be some clear change from Ukraine not touching Crimea to full on liberation. Ukraine is bombing military targets in Crimea even now. They are even conducting operations on Crimean soil right now. They hit the Kerch bridge multiple times already. Why press the button after 4th or 7th bridge hit and not after first?
Also it's not like he can't sell this defeat as victory. The way things are going there's probably a lot of people in russia prepared to pretend that there was glorious victory after heroic attack towards russian border. There will be interviews in the Moscow streets with people praising the successful special military operation, because they know that if it continued few more months, there would be conscription in Moscow.
A nuclear attack would surely bring in NATO. I can't see them getting away with that without some kind of severe retaliation.
Putin can survive the loss of Crimea. And he knows that a tactical nuclear attack means he loses Crimea and NATO destroys the Black Sea Fleet. That's not preferable to simply losing Crimea.
Any further escalation means that Putin likely loses his life, too. Definitely not preferable to the other two outcomes.
While Russian doctrine does allow for smaller tactical nukes to be used with less restrictions than their full sized counterparts, the smaller nature of these nukes mean they wouldn't accomplish as much on the battlefield or even if dropped onto a city. "No using nukes" is a pretty well established hard line for most countries in the world though, and if Russia uses nuclear weapons of any sort, at best NATO will make their current aid look like a joke and at worst full scale intervention into the conflict. Russia gains little with using nuclear weapons in the current conflict while standing to lose a lot. What they've been doing instead is the best way for them to use nukes in the conflict, constantly threatening to nuke everything unless they get their way and appear insane enough to actually do it, letting them reap the benefits of nuclear extortion without actually using them