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The false promises of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving
(www.theverge.com)
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this post was submitted on 24 Aug 2023
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I wonder how this statistically compares to non-Tesla crashes?
Edit: quick Google/math shows average rate of lethal automobile crashes at 12 per 100,000 drivers. Tesla has supposedly sold 4.5million cars. 4.5million divided by 17 deaths from the article = 1 death per 200,000 Tesla drivers.
This isn't exactly apples-to-apples and would love for some to "do the math" more accurately, but it seems like Tesla is much safer than a standard driver.
The other confounding factor is we don't know how many of these drivers were abusing autopilot by cheating the rules (it requires hands on the wheel and full attention on the road)
Your statistical analysis is so bad that it's not even wrong. It's just a pile of disparate data strung together with false assumptions.
So all of those Teslas were sold in America? And all 4.5 million of those Teslas have Autopilot? And they're in Autopilot mode 100% of the time?
You forgot the most important issue: Tesla drivers are not representative of the average driver. They have more money and more education. They live in places with nicer weather. These all contribute to lower crash rates without self driving. I bet high end Mercedes have lower crash rates too, because people don't defer maintenance and then drive them crazily in the snow.
Compare apples to apples and I bet Teslas have average crash rates for luxury cars.
Fix it for me then daddi
It is not a valid comparison. Many deaths are in bad weather or in bad roads. Tesla self driving will not even turn on in these conditions. I do not believe apples to apples data exists.
this math is too sloppy to draw any conclusions
The true comparison is in miles per accident. Fatal accidents will be higher for older model cars. Not all Tesla cars have FSD. In many situations FSD is not available even on equipped cars. There is nothing to indicate from the current data that Telsa FSD is safer or more dangerous than the median driver.
Let's see it, show me the numbers! Everyone's critiquing my quick mental math but I don't see anyone contributing to fix it 🤷♀️. Will edit comment once I do!
This isn't necessarily true either. The NHTSA Standing General Order data shows that Tesla reports a large number of crashes (which they get to cherry pick in a LOT of cases) under ADAS use compared to other brands. Taking conservative rollout numbers from companies like Honda shows that the crash per ADAS equipped vehicle rate is significantly higher.
The real red flag in all all of this is that Tesla's own reported marketing numbers for ADAS crashes wasn't declining with newer releases over time. A rate that doesn't improve as the CEO claims the software is already performing better than humans should instantly discredit the software, its performance, and any claims about new or improving features.
Whatabout what your mom does, down by the docks at night?