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this post was submitted on 31 May 2026
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Ask Lemmy
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Earth, 2150:
As the last embers of organized human civilization crumbled in the hothouse Earth catastrophe, a handful of astronomers remain in cloistered study, pouring over the data from the last of the great space telescopes, built at the height of 22nd century science. What have they learned? We are not the outlier. In the light of other Suns we find them. Dead world after dead world. Once bastions of life reduced to wastelands of ruin by technological civilization. The majority of Earth-like worlds around Sun-like stars are tombs, rendered unto sterile husks by the actions of their own offspring.
To firmly tease such a conclusion out of such ephemeral evidence as a stellar spectrum was truly a feat of the astronomical art. It required techniques undreamt of and inconceivable by 21st century scholars. But, the last of this civilization's great astronomer's found a way. And the conclusion was damning.
Intelligent tool-using life is a terminal disease for life on a world. Once a biosphere has dreamed up a species like ours, that world's days are numbered. There are many forms that extinction can take, some more exotic than others. But most are through mundane causes like self-induced ecological collapse. For every one case of a civilization destroying itself in a science experiment gone wrong, there are a thousand cases of simple ecological catastrophe.
We are dying. We are alone. We are surrounded by the dead.
Ooor it could be fine-ish.
Maybe, but the usual survival strategy in sci-fi is a diaspora. If we had multiple homes, a disaster is less likely to hit all at once.
I don’t know if such a thing will ever be doable, but it is a worthwhile goal to work toward
If you're talking about a true offworld backup to our species, that is a very very long ways away. Even if we were to really take that effort seriously, it would take us millennia before we truly established and independent presence in space.
The key is that it's not possible to have a non-industrial civilization on a place like Mars. Our cultural model for such things is always the Age of Sale and similar exploratory waves by European imperialists. But this cultural analog is flawed. People could sail from England to the Americas and live off the land once they got there. They could build houses, find food and water, and really form a farmstead with the tools and knowledge they already possessed. They could even cut down local trees and repair the ships they used to get there.
But Mars? There's nothing there. You want water? You need to build a water purification plant. You want air? You'll need a huge air cleaning and reclamation system. And all of this will require massive amounts of power. And all of this infrastructure requires vast supply chains to keep, both to build the things and to build the things that build the things.
What this ultimately comes down to is that until you have hundreds of millions of people living on Mars, you can forget any idea of them truly being able to survive without Earth. You could have a million people on Mars. But if Earth collapses, unless Mars is already self-sufficient at that time, the Martians are on borrowed time. Sure, once you start a colony, there will be strong incentives to make Mars as self-sufficient as possible. The transport costs alone will ensure that. But it will be a very, very long time before Mars is self-sufficient in something like, computer chips for example. Every colony would be built from the start with its own water and air systems, but inevitably most of the components for that equipment would be shipped in from Earth. It will be a very long time before such a colony is capable of producing all the tools and equipment it needs to keep operating. And remember, on Mars, going organic farm and returning to the land is never an option. It's full industrial civilization or death. The planet is not capable of sustain life (or at least life like ours) without extensive technological supplementation.
It may never be doable but it’s worth working toward.
We’re at the point where we ought to be able to maintain a small permanent station on the Moon. Think like ISS but farther away and with some gravity. That will let us answer question like is the moons gravity sufficient to live healthily, or what are the effects of radiation on whatever level of shielding we can afford. It will let us develop all the technologies from power to food, to most especially mining. If we can successfully use local resources for shielding and building, water, air, food, and rocket fuel, then we can afford a larger base or bases
Before we can do more than set boots on mars, there’s a lot of self-sufficiency that needs to be automated and is now only a good idea. When your “emergency resupply” takes nine months, you’d better be confident of no emergencies