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f/18/cali
(media.piefed.world)
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this post was submitted on 23 Mar 2026
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Lemmy Shitpost
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Aight let's do a quick lesson in Bayes Theorem, here in a shitpost community.
Imagine there is a disease that exists in 1% of the population. Medical science develops a test with 90% accuracy (both in false positives and false negatives) on whether a person has the disease. Your doctor orders the test, and it comes up positive and saying that you have the disease. What is the probability that you actually have it?
Well if you test an entire population of 1000, 10 of whom have the disease, it will correctly positively identify 9 out of 10 who have the disease, and incorrectly give false positive results to 99 out of the 990 who don't have it. So among the 108 people who get positive results, you only about 8.3% chance of having the disease.
My Bayesian priors for an anonymous prolific poster of thirstposts in a shitposting community on a heavily tech-centric social media platform is that they're about 90% likely to be 30+ year old men. Claiming to be an 18 year old woman might move the needle a little bit, but not as much as you might think.
The issue isn't how unlikely the situation is, it's "why would you choose harrassment".
He is not just saying that she is a man, he is saying that she is a scammer. In your 90% chances that she is a man, she might also be trans-adjacent (everyone knows there are no horny trans on lemmy), and still not be a scammer. It is trivial to find out whether she is in fact a scammer, as all communications are public. Scammers do not like niche platforms composed entirely of scam-hardened people where all communications are public.
I'm not going to make arbitrary numbers here, I'll let you bayes-vibe your own. Given how easy it is to actually find out, and how likely he is to be defaming and how bad it could be for her, he should be contacting an admin rather than make public "meme" accusations. If he did in fact believe she was a scammer and could harm people, I hope he would try to get her banned rather than just be toxic for internet points and let people get scammed. Especially bad when the accusations are repeated, by him and different people.
BTW I think 90% chance is way too much. Anyways. I've been told it wasn't very nice to spend my days transvestigating, and here are everyone running an excavation. But I guess it's ok since everyone's doing it :shrug:
Who said anything about scamming? At most, it's an accusation of trolling for the lulz. Which is actually quite common on the internet.